The UK economy barely expanded in the third quarter and slipped in September, sharpening the focus on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tax-tilted budget later this month and complicating the Bank of England’s year-end policy calculus. Headline prints Q3 GDP: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.3% in Q2), signalling a loss of momentum into …
Read More »UK unemployment ticks up as pay growth cools, bolstering case for a December BoE cut
The UK labour market lost further momentum into autumn, with unemployment rising and wage pressures easing—an evolving mix that could give the Bank of England room to lower rates at its final meeting of the year. The jobless rate climbed to 5.0% in the three months to September (vs 4.8% …
Read More »UK construction slumps to five-year low as pre-Budget uncertainty bites
Britain’s construction industry shrank at the fastest pace in more than five years in October, with civil engineering suffering its steepest drop since the pandemic as weak demand and uncertainty ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Budget weighed on activity. The S&P Global UK Construction PMI fell to 44.1 from …
Read More »UK Economy Slows Less Than Expected in Q2 2025, Easing Pressure on Finance Minister
Britain’s economy grew 0.3% between April and June 2025, slower than the 0.7% expansion in Q1 but above the 0.1% forecast by the Bank of England and economists, despite the impact of U.S. trade tariffs and a weaker labor market. GDP Performance: April: -0.1% (smaller decline than initially reported) May: …
Read More »UK Economy Shows Early Signs of Stagnation in Q3 2025: PMI Data Signals Challenges Ahead
Composite PMI Falls Below Expectations Amid Trade, Tax, and Wage Pressures The UK economy is facing early signs of stagnation as July’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data revealed a decline in business activity at the start of the third quarter of 2025. The composite PMI dropped to 51.0 in …
Read More »Weekly Recap: A Rocky Year’s Finish
The US stock market experienced a decline in the holiday-shortened week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively largely due to the performance of the communication services and information technology sectors. However, US Treasury yields have continued to rise, surpassing the 4.6% mark, largely …
Read More »US Diverging Economy: Services Boom, Manufacturing Struggles
The US economy is painting a picture of divergence as we approach the end of 2024. While the services sector is thriving, the manufacturing industry continues to face headwinds.The recent S&P Global survey highlights the stark contrast between these two sectors. The US Services PMI surged to a 38-month high …
Read More »EUR/USD Bounces Back Amid Rate Speculations, Rising Trade War Fears
As investors look for fresh clues about possible interest rate moves by the Fed and ECB in December, EUR/USD has gained ground and is now trading close to 1.0550. There is no pressing need to lower interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed. Investor anxiety over a trade war between …
Read More »Euro Retreats On Fresh Recession Fears
Monday saw a temporary extension of the euro’s slide versus the US dollar as business activity figures for the euro zone economy disappointed. Prior to this, US statistics had indicated that activity remained stable. With markets already putting in a roughly 77% possibility for a cut of at least 25 …
Read More »Euro Zone Business Activity Contracts Sharply Amid Manufacturing and Services Slowdown
Business activity in the euro zone saw an unexpected and sharp contraction this month, as the bloc’s dominant services sector stagnated, and the manufacturing downturn accelerated, according to data released on Monday. HCOB’s preliminary composite euro zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dropped to 48.9 in September …
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