There were 166,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the US in the week ending on 2 April, the latest release from the US Department of Labour on Thursday showed, a record low.That was well below the median economist forecast for a reading of 200,000 and a steep drop from the prior …
Read More »Red, Green Arrows Across Financial Markets Await Signals By FOMC Minutes
Investors, traders and market participants are eying minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting to find direction as well as to gauge US central bank policymakers’ appetite for a half percentage point increase in interest rates in May. The stock market remains within a specific range for now, which should …
Read More »Fed’s Daly: Can start balance sheet reduction as early as May meeting
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly explained that the labour market is extremely tight while the Fed is on a path to raising interest rates. She added inflation is as harmful as not having a job while many of the imbalances we see are covid-related. Key Quotes:”I don’t expect a …
Read More »BoE’s Cunliffe: Ukraine Crisis will intensify, prolong inflation surge
On Monday, BoE’s Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said that the Ukraine invasion will intensify the prolong the surge in inflation and tighten the squeeze on household incomes. A drop in demand through household consumption and business investment will, to an extent that is not yet clear, be greater than be …
Read More »US: ISM Manufacturing PMI falls to 57.1 in March
The headline ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) figure fell to 57.1 in March from 58.6 in February, a miss against expectations for a small rise to 59.0, according to the latest release by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). There was a sharp rise in the Price Paid subindex …
Read More »Will NFP report tip the scales on the Fed’s decision in May?
Friday’s awaited report will be the final NFP data immediately before the next Fed meeting in early May, where traders are currently split between expecting a 25bps and a 50bps rate hike.It is like a problematic monetary policy riddle; how can a central bank raise interest rates, but be further …
Read More »US Diminished purchasing power Impacts real spending
February marked the seventh straight month in which inflation outpaced income, raising doubts about consumer spending stamina, explained analysts at Wells Fargo commenting personal income and spending data released on Thursday. Even with inflation at a 40-year high, the 0.4% drop in real spending in February might be overstating the …
Read More »USD/JPY Steadies Ahead of the BOJ’s Bond-Buying Wrap-Up, Subdued US GDP
The USD/JPY pair is hesitating in a narrow range of 121.32-122.24 as a broad-based buying in the Japanese yen is likely to over after the conclusion of the unlimited bond-buying program by the Bank of Japan. The four-day bond-buying program of the BOJ will conclude on Thursday. To curtail the …
Read More »Ahead of NFP Data, Bond Market Signaling Recession Warning
Everybody in the US and beyond is talking about the yield curve inversion. At one point yesterday the yield on the 2-year Treasury briefly traded above that of the 10-year. Historically, such an inversion has been an accurate predictor of a recession, typically within two years.Though these inversions in the …
Read More »US ADP Employment Expectations As Job Creation Slows Down
While yield curve flattens, US ADP payrolls are expected at 438K in March, NFP at 475K. US yield curve is flattening, tolling the bells and ringing recession alarm amid 50-bps Fed’s rate hike bets next May.Fed Chair Powell believes the labour market is strong enough, recession seems unlikely, but could …
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