Commodities wrapped up their best quarter in over 32 years in the aftermath pf Russia’s invasion of Ukraine supercharged a rally in markets from oil to wheat and nickel.The commodities’ rally extends last year’s rebound, which was driven by higher consumer demand for goods and services when the economy reopened …
Read More »Should Markets Panic? Why Could T-yields Be Recession Warning?
One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is shining brighter. The yield curve is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the US economy’s long-term prospects. Should Markets Panic?Fed Chair Jerome Powell would say no. Last week, he said that he pays …
Read More »Analysts: NFP does not change the calculus for the Fed
According to analysts from TD Securities, today’s numbers reinforce the strength of the labor market. They forecast a 50 bp rate hike in May and June. Data released on Friday showed employers added 431000 jobs during March in the US. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. Key Quotes: “We think …
Read More »NFP Preview: Forecasts From 4 Major Banks
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the March jobs report on Friday, April 1 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 4 major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. CIBC “Employers likely …
Read More »Market Drivers – US Session – 31 March
The euro tumbled on Thursday as investors fretted about rising EU-Russia economic tensions after Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on a demand that European nations pay for Russian gas in roubles, exacerbating fears that Russia might block energy exports to the EU bloc. This, coupled with a generalized paring …
Read More »Will NFP report tip the scales on the Fed’s decision in May?
Friday’s awaited report will be the final NFP data immediately before the next Fed meeting in early May, where traders are currently split between expecting a 25bps and a 50bps rate hike.It is like a problematic monetary policy riddle; how can a central bank raise interest rates, but be further …
Read More »Market Drivers – US Session – 30 March
Financial markets on Wednesday remained focused on the the continued weakening of the US dollar, where the DXY dropped a further 0.6% to the 97.80s, where it now probes mid-March lows more than 1.5% below earlier weekly highs. Economic DataPrivate sector employment in the US rose by 455,000 in March, …
Read More »Ahead of NFP Data, Bond Market Signaling Recession Warning
Everybody in the US and beyond is talking about the yield curve inversion. At one point yesterday the yield on the 2-year Treasury briefly traded above that of the 10-year. Historically, such an inversion has been an accurate predictor of a recession, typically within two years.Though these inversions in the …
Read More »USD/CAD slumps On Ukraine’s conflict, Higher Oil Prices
The USD/CAD pair extends its fall for the second straight day; after Monday’s price action printed a weekly high near the 1.2600 mark, the Canadian dollar strengthened on the back of high oil prices, amid a downbeat market mood, courtesy of recent developments in the Eastern Europe front. the USD/CAD …
Read More »Fed’s George: Must move ‘expeditiously’ away from easy policy stance
The $9 trillion balance sheet will need to decline significantly, Kansas City Fed president saysKansas City Fed President Esther George Daniel Brenner/BloombergThe Federal Reserve must more swiftly away from its current monetary policy stance that is as easy as it has ever been at a time when inflation is well …
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