The UK economy barely expanded in the third quarter and slipped in September, sharpening the focus on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tax-tilted budget later this month and complicating the Bank of England’s year-end policy calculus. Headline prints Q3 GDP: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.3% in Q2), signalling a loss of momentum into …
Read More »UK unemployment ticks up as pay growth cools, bolstering case for a December BoE cut
The UK labour market lost further momentum into autumn, with unemployment rising and wage pressures easing—an evolving mix that could give the Bank of England room to lower rates at its final meeting of the year. The jobless rate climbed to 5.0% in the three months to September (vs 4.8% …
Read More »UK construction slumps to five-year low as pre-Budget uncertainty bites
Britain’s construction industry shrank at the fastest pace in more than five years in October, with civil engineering suffering its steepest drop since the pandemic as weak demand and uncertainty ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Budget weighed on activity. The S&P Global UK Construction PMI fell to 44.1 from …
Read More »U.K. Inflation Holds Steady in September, Offering Temporary Relief to BoE Policymakers
U.K. inflation remained unchanged in September, easing pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) ahead of its November policy meeting, although the rate still sits nearly double the central bank’s target. According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), annual CPI rose 3.8%, matching readings from July and …
Read More »UK Economy Slows Less Than Expected in Q2 2025, Easing Pressure on Finance Minister
Britain’s economy grew 0.3% between April and June 2025, slower than the 0.7% expansion in Q1 but above the 0.1% forecast by the Bank of England and economists, despite the impact of U.S. trade tariffs and a weaker labor market. GDP Performance: April: -0.1% (smaller decline than initially reported) May: …
Read More »UK Economy Shows Early Signs of Stagnation in Q3 2025: PMI Data Signals Challenges Ahead
Composite PMI Falls Below Expectations Amid Trade, Tax, and Wage Pressures The UK economy is facing early signs of stagnation as July’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data revealed a decline in business activity at the start of the third quarter of 2025. The composite PMI dropped to 51.0 in …
Read More »UK Inflation Surprise Raises Questions Over BoE Rate Cut Path
British inflation accelerated sharply in April, exceeding both market and central bank forecasts, reigniting concerns that price pressures remain deeply rooted in the economy and potentially challenging the Bank of England’s expected path of gradual interest rate reductions. Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed …
Read More »UK Economic Growth Forecast Revised Downward to 1.0% for 2025
The UK’s economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 1.0%, according to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The announcement, made on Wednesday, cites updated estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This new projection marks a sharp decline from the previously expected 2.0% growth, which was part …
Read More »UK Inflation Surges to 3% in January, Exceeding Expectations
The United Kingdom’s inflation rate rose to 3% in January, surpassing the 2.8% forecast by economists, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. Key Highlights: Inflation accelerated from 2.5% in December to 3% in January. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) rose to …
Read More »BoE Cuts Rates, Warns of Inflation, Slashes Growth Forecast
The Bank of England recently cut interest rates to 4.5% from 4.75% and significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.75%. While they upgraded growth predictions for 2026 and 2027, they also warned of rising inflation due to increased energy and water bills, potentially reaching 3.7% …
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