How high will U. S. 3Q GDP be?

Investors eye how strong growth in Q3 gross domestic product will be when the government reports the official advance estimate on Thursday.


Following the first two quarters when the annual rate of growth came in at 6.3% and 6.7%, respectively, the arrival of the delta variant this summer and ongoing disruptions to the global supply chain have resulted in a slowing of the economy both at home and abroad.

Inflation is proving more than “transitory,” as Federal Reserve Board officials predicted earlier and some forecasters are even dusting off the 1970s term “stagflation,” which is a combination of low growth and high inflation.

The most recent consensus estimates from the Conference Board, updated in mid-October, peg the number at 3.5%. Other private forecasts have the number marginally below 3%, around 2.9% to 2.8%.

This forecast is a downgrade from September and incorporates the larger-than-expected impact that the COVID-19 Delta variant had on the US economy. Looking further, some economists forecast that the U. S. economy will grow by 3.8% YOY in 2022 and 3% YOY in 2023.

But a closely watched measure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is currently showing a paltry 0.5% – down from 6.1% in late July.