CAD Holds Firm After a Successful Support Test 23/6/2026

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The technical outlook remains unchanged, with the USD/CAD pair preserving its orderly upward trajectory and successfully unwinding the prior overbought conditions through a retest of support before relaunching higher.

Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe

With respect to intraday dynamics, the technical outlook continues to lean constructively, as the pair continues to draw robust support from the simple moving averages — which are reinforcing the upward price curve and validating that the positive trend remains firmly in play across the short term.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has successfully unwound the overbought condition — a development that mirrors the continued relative improvement in bullish momentum.

Sustained trading above the key support floors remains a constructive factor underpinning the continuation of buyers’ dominance across the upcoming sessions.

Expected Scenarios:

Bullish (Most Likely) Scenario:

Sustained trading above the 1.4140 support floor preserves the advantage of the uptrend, with the initial target set at:

• 1.4210

Gains could subsequently extend upon a decisive breach of 1.4210, targeting:

• 1.4250 as the next level

Bearish Scenario:

Conversely, a return and stabilization beneath the 1.4140 level would temporarily neutralize the bullish scenario and expose the pair to renewed negative pressure, with:

• 1.4110 emerging as the initial downside target
• Followed by 1.4070 before a potential rebound takes hold

Risk Alert: Risk levels remain elevated amid persistent trade frictions and geopolitical tensions — all scenarios should be considered plausible.

Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.

S1: 1.4150	R1: 1.4200
S2: 1.4110	R2: 1.4240
S3: 1.4075	R3: 1.4270