Key Takeaways

• Futures advance: Dow futures rose 266 points (+0.5%), S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%.
• Prior session records: Wall Street logged fresh all-time closing highs Friday, with Dell’s raised guidance and chip stocks powering the tech rally.
• William Blair’s take: “Market dispersion has been extremely high — a tighter group of stocks is pushing the market to new highs; other companies are likely reflecting more war risk.”
• Fresh Iran strikes: The U.S. bombarded radar and drone control sites after Iran shot down a U.S. drone; Iran retaliated and Kuwait intercepted missile and drone fire.
• Israel expands in Lebanon: The country pushed to extend its occupation of southern Lebanon in response to Hezbollah drone launches.
• Trump reviews MOU: The president is examining a proposed memorandum of understanding covering ceasefire extension, Hormuz shipping restart, and nuclear framework discussions.
• Iran’s red line: Tehran’s chief negotiator said the country won’t accept a deal that doesn’t secure its rights.
• Brent jumps 3.1%: Oil rose to $93.92 per barrel, remaining well above pre-war levels.
• Vital Knowledge’s view: Even if a deal is reached, Hormuz shipping won’t recover for months — keeping a geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.
• Gold drops, dollar firms: The inflation and rate hike environment continues to weigh on bullion while boosting the greenback.
• Nvidia’s “RTX Spark” unveiled: CEO Jensen Huang announced the new N1X superchip — built with Microsoft and designed by MediaTek on Arm’s platform — at COMPUTEX in Taiwan.
• Intel, AMD, Qualcomm retreat: The three chipmakers slipped premarket as Nvidia’s AI PC challenge loomed.
• Microsoft rallies: Software stocks surged on the Nvidia collaboration news.

U.S. stock market futures ticked higher on Monday, suggesting an extension to gains notched at the end of the prior trading week, even as new strikes in the Middle East rattled hopes for an imminent ceasefire extension deal between the United States and Iran.

By 07:09 ET (11:09 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 266 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 21 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had advanced by 74 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street gained in the prior session, logging fresh record closing highs as well as monthly and weekly advances. Results from Dell helped underpin the rally on Friday, with investors cheering the company’s decision to lift its annual profit and revenue forecasts. Chipmaking stocks, in particular, powered a jump in the wider tech sector.

“We do not believe that the market has been as complacent about the war as many commentators seem to believe. Remember that market dispersion has been extremely high; hence, it has been a tighter group of stocks that are pushing the market to new highs, and other companies are therefore likely reflecting more of the war risk,” analysts at William Blair said in a research note.

U.S. and Iran Trade Fresh Strikes

Yet the prospects of an imminent deal have been tempered by yet another exchange of military strikes.

The U.S. military said it bombarded radar and drone control sites in Iran, following a move by Tehran to shoot down an American drone over the weekend, the Associated Press reported. Iran confirmed that it launched a further strike in retaliation, and Kuwait flagged that it had intercepted drone and missile fire, the AP said.

Elsewhere, Israel pushed to expand its occupation of a section of neighboring Lebanon, responding to drone launches by Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants.

U.S. President Donald Trump stressed that he believes Iran wants to reach an agreement, with both sides continuing to negotiate over key sticking points — particularly Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump is now reviewing a proposed memorandum of understanding which would reportedly extend an ongoing ceasefire, call for shipping to restart in the Strait of Hormuz, and offer a framework for discussing Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s chief negotiator flagged on Sunday that Tehran would not accept an agreement that does not secure its rights.

Brent Rises; Long Road to Hormuz Recovery

Against this backdrop, Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, marched higher once again. At 03:56 ET, the contract had risen 3.1% to $93.92 a barrel.

While the potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension has weighed on oil prices, the Brent contract remains well above pre-war levels. Analysts at Vital Knowledge suggested this reflects the belief that, even if a deal is reached, shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is not likely to recover for months — while Iran’s stranglehold over the conduit will maintain a geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.

Oil prices have been a focal point for investors since the start of the Iran war in late February. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway for a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas — drove up energy prices, sparking worries over an inflationary burst hitting countries around the world.

Expectations have grown that central banks could react to the inflation wave by raising interest rates. Gold, a non-yielding asset which tends to underperform in higher-for-longer rate environments, dropped, while the U.S. dollar — viewed as a relative safe haven during the Iran war — firmed slightly.

Nvidia’s “RTX Spark” Superchip Shakes Up the AI PC Market

Away from the war, shares of chipmaking groups Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and Qualcomm retreated in premarket trading after Nvidia unveiled a new processor for Microsoft’s Windows operating platform — to be used in a line of laptops and desktop PCs. The launch presents a potential new challenger in the AI PC market.

Shares of software stocks, notably Microsoft, rallied.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced the new line of “superchips” — the RTX Spark — during a keynote address at the COMPUTEX conference in Taiwan on Monday.

The RTX Spark will include Nvidia’s new N1X processor — a custom chip made with Microsoft and designed by Taiwanese firm MediaTek, based on chip designer Arm’s platform.

Huang said the chips were aimed chiefly at running locally hosted artificial intelligence agents, and that Nvidia had collaborated with Windows on the software platform.