Key Takeaways

• Futures explode higher: S&P 500 futures jumped 1.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures surged 2.1%, and Dow futures climbed 1%.
• Peace deal confirmed: Washington and Tehran reached an interim agreement to end their three-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Switzerland signing Friday: Pakistan — the frequent mediator — confirmed the MOU will be signed on June 19.
• “Immediate and permanent termination”: Pakistani PM Sharif declared the end of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
• Hormuz opens Friday: Trump said the delay is due to mine-clearing operations; the U.S. naval blockade will also be lifted.
• Trump rebukes Netanyahu: Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend drew a stern rebuke from the president.
• Deal unsigned until Friday: Tehran indicated the agreement will not be implemented until formally signed.
• Brent crude falls: Oil prices dropped on the announcement, easing energy-inflation and rate hike fears.
• Gold gains, dollar weakens: Both moves reflected easing inflation anxiety and a retreat from safe-haven positioning.
• Treasury yields drop: Lower yields provided further support for equities.
• SpaceX tops $2 trillion: The stock jumped above its $135 IPO price, making Musk’s rocket company one of the largest listed U.S. firms.
• Space sector rallies: Rocket Lab and Planet Labs surged in SpaceX’s wake.
• Fed meeting concludes Wednesday: The central bank is widely expected to hold rates; markets watch for easing bias removal from the FOMC statement.
• Vital Knowledge’s call: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “could tip things in a dovish direction” by reiterating that rate cuts would be warranted if the Iran conflict is resolved.
• Rate cut bets gone: Expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been all but eliminated after recent inflation acceleration.

U.S. stock index futures soared on Monday after Washington and Tehran confirmed they had reached a preliminary peace deal to end their war and reopen key shipping lanes in the Middle East.

At 08:50 ET (12:50 GMT), S&P 500 futures jumped 1.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures surged 2.1%, and Dow futures climbed 1%.

Wall Street was set for a strong open on Monday after positive, tech-fueled rallies in European and Asian markets.

The main averages advanced to finish the prior week, buoyed by hopes of an imminent agreement between Washington and Tehran as well as a spike in SpaceX shares after their record-setting public debut. Even as some analysts highlighted worries around SpaceX’s fundamentals, the stock jumped above its IPO price of $135 a share — giving Elon Musk’s reusable rocket group a value of more than $2 trillion and making it one of the largest publicly listed U.S. firms.

Other space-industry names, such as Rocket Lab and Planet Labs, rallied in the wake of the flotation.

U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Confirmed; to Be Signed on Friday

The United States and Iran have reached an interim peace deal to end a war that has dragged on for more than three months, threatening the global economy in the process.

A memorandum of understanding is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, according to Pakistan — which has served as a frequent mediator during the conflict.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the two nations have “declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts” — including Lebanon. Concerns had surrounded the deal’s outlook after U.S.-allied Israel carried out attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon over the weekend, leading to a stern rebuke of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by President Trump.

Neither the United States nor Iran offered specific details, while Tehran indicated the deal will not be implemented until it is formally signed.

Trump said the agreement would halt hostilities and unblock the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flowed prior to the war’s outbreak in late February.

In a social media post, Trump said the strait would reopen on Friday, citing mine-clearing operations as the reason for the brief delay. He added that the longstanding American naval blockade of Iranian ports would also be lifted.

Brent crude futures fell in the wake of the announcement, easing worries over a prolonged energy-induced inflation spike fueling a hawkish pivot by global central banks. Gold prices gained while the U.S. dollar weakened, and Treasury yields dropped — further bolstering equities.

Fed Decision Later This Week

Investors are now focused on an upcoming two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to conclude on Wednesday.

Bets have grown that the Fed will keep rates steady, and possibly opt to lift borrowing costs later in 2026. Meanwhile, wagers at the beginning of the year that the Fed would cut rates in 2026 have been all but eliminated — especially after recent data showed an acceleration in inflation.

But they argued that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — stuck between faster price growth and Trump’s insistence on aggressive rate cuts — “could put his thumb on the scale during the press conference and tip things in a dovish direction by reiterating” that several Fed members have indicated rate reductions would be warranted should the Iran conflict be resolved soon.