Key Takeaways

• Futures muted: Dow futures were mostly flat, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.1%.
• Deutsche Bank’s read: “Markets have clearly stabilized this morning after the surge of optimism that surrounded the deal yesterday.”
• Monday’s records: The Dow gained 469 points (+0.9%), S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.1%.
• Trump’s Hormuz timeline: The president told the G7 in France the strait is “partially opened” and will be “completely opened” by Friday.
• WSJ caution: Senior U.S. officials say it could take two weeks for normal shipping to resume.
• Deal text Friday: The MOU framework text is expected to be released at signing; some officials say it could come sooner.
• Vance’s caveat: The VP said there are “a lot of very important details to figure out” ahead of the Geneva ceremony.
• Brent extends fall: Oil dropped 1.7% to $81.72 — continuing Monday’s plunge to three-month lows.
• Fed meeting kicks off today: The two-day meeting concludes Wednesday with a widely expected hold; all eyes on Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
• Inflation still a concern: Iran-linked gasoline cost spikes continue to fuel price pressures, shaping the Fed’s cautious stance.
• BOJ hikes to 1%: The Bank of Japan raised rates 25 basis points and outlined plans to reduce monthly bond purchases ahead.
• RBA holds but stays hawkish: Australia’s central bank warned “headline and underlying inflation are still too high” and flagged possible future hikes.
• SpaceX extends rally: The stock surged another 19% on its second trading day, giving it a market cap comparable to Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia.

Stock futures on Wall Street were muted on Tuesday, while oil prices continued to edge lower, as investors waited for more details to emerge around a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

By 05:43 ET (09:43 GMT), the Dow futures contract was mostly flat, S&P 500 futures had slipped by 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had ticked up by 20 points, or 0.1%.

“Markets have clearly stabilized this morning after the surge of optimism that surrounded the deal yesterday,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note.

The main U.S. averages advanced in the previous session, buoyed by the announcement of a deal to conclude the more than three-month-old war in the Middle East. Shares of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s reusable rocket company, also surged — extending a climb following a blockbuster public debut last week.

At the end of trading on Monday, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 469 points, or 0.9%, the benchmark S&P 500 had risen by 123 points, or 1.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had jumped by 795 points, or 3.1%.

Brent Extends Drop

President Donald Trump has suggested that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened by Friday, when representatives from Washington and Tehran are set to meet in Switzerland for a formal signing of the interim peace deal.

Speaking in France at the start of a Group of Seven meeting, Trump insisted that the strait — which has been effectively shuttered for weeks — is already “partially opened.”

“Ships are starting to go out now, and on Friday it will be completely opened,” he said.

However, some uncertainty has surrounded that timeline, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing senior U.S. officials, the paper said it could take two weeks for normal shipping operations to resume.

Meanwhile, Trump said the text of the framework deal will be released on Friday, even as other officials said it could be made public within two days. Details remain scarce, but reports say the MOU will extend an ongoing ceasefire by 60 days and lift the American blockade of Iranian ports.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance — who will attend the signing ceremony — told CNBC on Monday that “there are a lot of very important details to figure out.”

Against this backdrop, Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were last down 1.7% to $81.72 a barrel. On Monday, the contract plunged to three-month lows.

Fed Rate Decision Looms

Attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve, which kicked off its latest two-day policy meeting today. The central bank is widely tipped to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with officials keeping tabs on accelerating inflationary pressures due largely to an Iran-linked spike in gasoline costs. Much of the focus will be on post-decision commentary from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Beyond the Fed, the Bank of Japan increased interest rates by 25 basis points, stating it will continue to tighten policy in the face of sticky inflation, and outlined plans to reduce its pace of monthly bond purchases in the coming quarters.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, announced it would leave borrowing costs steady — although policymakers flagged that they might raise rates again if needed, warning that “headline and underlying inflation are still too high.”

SpaceX Keeps Surging

In individual stocks, SpaceX extended gains in extended hours trading after surging 19% in its second day of trading. SpaceX’s meteoric rise has given it a market capitalization comparable to longstanding stock market heavyweights such as Google-owner Alphabet, iPhone-maker Apple, and AI chip titan Nvidia.