Key Takeaways

• Trump’s Friday deadline: Speaking at the G7 in France, the president said the Strait of Hormuz is already “partially opened” and will be “completely opened” by Friday.
• WSJ contradicts timeline: Senior U.S. officials told the paper it could take two weeks for normal shipping operations to resume.
• Brent extends slide: Oil fell 2.5% to $81.11 per barrel — far below recent peaks above $110 as supply return expectations build.
• Deal text coming Friday: Trump said the MOU framework will be released on Friday; other officials suggested it could be made public within two days.
• MOU details: The deal extends the ceasefire by 60 days and lifts the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.
• Already electronically signed: Trump and VP Vance signed the preliminary deal on Sunday; Vance will attend Friday’s Geneva ceremony.
• Vance’s caveat: The VP told CNBC Monday there are still “a lot of very important details to figure out.”
• Netanyahu disapproves: Israel’s PM is seeking a meeting with Trump, objecting to any deal that doesn’t fully dismantle Iran’s ballistic missile program and militia network.
• Israel won’t leave Lebanon: Defense Minister Katz said Israeli forces will not withdraw from southern Lebanon.
• Iran’s red line: Foreign Minister Araghchi said any deal must be contingent on an Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories — calling continued Israeli presence a violation of the MOU.
• U.S.-Israel split: American officials said an Israeli withdrawal is not a required condition for halting hostilities.
• Lebanon the key wildcard: The ongoing Israeli offensive in Lebanon could yet derail the peace framework.

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U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened by Friday, when representatives from Washington and Tehran are set to meet in Switzerland for a formal signing of the interim peace deal.

Speaking in France at the start of a Group of Seven meeting, Trump insisted that the strait — which has been effectively shuttered for weeks — is already “partially opened.”

“Ships are starting to go out now, and on Friday it will be completely opened,” he said.

Driven by the prospect of renewed oil supplies coming to the global market, Brent crude futures extended their recent decline from peaks above $110 a barrel. By 04:46 ET (09:46 GMT), the Brent contract had fallen 2.5% to $81.11 a barrel.

Timeline Uncertainty and Deal Details

However, some uncertainty has surrounded that timeline, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing senior U.S. officials, the paper said it could take two weeks for normal shipping operations to resume.

Meanwhile, Trump said the text of the framework deal will be released on Friday, even as other officials said it could be made public within two days, the WSJ said. Details remain scarce, but reports say that along with reopening the strait, the MOU will extend an ongoing ceasefire by 60 days and lift the American blockade of Iranian ports.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance electronically signed the preliminary deal on Sunday. However, Vance — who will attend the signing ceremony in Geneva — told CNBC on Monday that there are still “a lot of very important details to figure out.”

Israel’s Lebanon Offensive: The Key Wildcard

One of those challenges may revolve around Israel’s ongoing offensive in Lebanon, where the U.S. ally has been targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been attempting to arrange a meeting with Trump, having expressed his disapproval of a deal that does not completely dismantle Iran’s ballistic-missile program and regional network of militias. Defense Minister Israel Katz has also said Israeli military forces will not be withdrawing from southern Lebanon.

At the same time, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed on Tuesday that any peace deal must be contingent on an end to Israel’s occupation of the area, Iranian state television reported.

“Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories they occupied during this war, the war has not fully come to an end,” Araghchi was quoted as saying, adding that further attacks would be considered a violation of the memorandum of understanding.

Yet U.S. officials have said that an Israeli withdrawal is not a required condition to halt hostilities, the WSJ reported.