Key Takeaways

• Oil retreats: Brent fell 1.2% to $93.08 per barrel, while WTI declined 1.5% to $89.89 — pulling back from Monday’s brief spike above $98.
• Fragile ceasefire holds for now: Both Israel and Iran paused strikes after Trump’s urgent appeal.
• Trump’s social media declaration: “Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.”
• “Total victory” claim: Trump said Monday evening the U.S. was close to declaring a “total victory” in the Iran war.
• Oil price prediction: Trump said crude prices were likely to fall sharply.
• Ceasefire remains fragile: Iran warned it could restart attacks if Israeli operations continue.
• Peace talks still ongoing: A broader agreement has not yet been finalized.
• Hormuz double blockade: The strait remains closed by both Tehran and Washington, keeping a floor under oil prices.
• OPEC+ increases can’t offset Hormuz losses: The producer group’s gradual output restoration is unlikely to compensate for the ongoing disruption.
• CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday: Key U.S. inflation data will test whether oil’s rebound is feeding broader price pressures.
• Markets remain cautious: The ceasefire could unravel at any moment.

Oil prices fell more than 1% during Asian trading on Tuesday as traders weighed a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran after both sides agreed to halt attacks following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump.

As of 01:57 ET (05:57 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in August fell 1.2% to $93.08 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 1.5% to $89.89 per barrel.

Brent prices had briefly surged above $98 on Monday amid renewed military exchanges between Israel and Iran before retreating as signs of de-escalation emerged.

Ceasefire Announced, But Fragility Remains

Market sentiment improved after Trump said Israel and Iran were seeking an immediate ceasefire, and both countries later indicated they had paused strikes for now.

“Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way,” Trump wrote on social media.

Trump said on Monday evening that the United States was close to declaring a “total victory” in the Iran war, and that oil prices were likely to fall sharply.

The latest truce followed a weekend flare-up that saw missile exchanges and attacks on petrochemical facilities.

Investors remained cautious as the ceasefire remains fragile and could unravel if either side resumes military operations. Iran has warned it could restart attacks if Israeli operations continue, while negotiations toward a broader peace agreement remain ongoing.

Hormuz and Supply Concerns Persist

The continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also kept a floor under prices. The passage remains closed by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington.

Traders are also monitoring the impact of OPEC+ supply increases scheduled for the coming months. While the producer group has been gradually restoring output, the additional barrels are unlikely to fully offset disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis.

Investors also await upcoming U.S. consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer prices figures on Thursday, which could help determine whether the recent rebound in oil prices is feeding into broader price pressures.