Key Takeaways

• Crude advances: Brent oil futures rose 0.8% to $105.01 per barrel, while WTI gained 1.1% to $99.16 — building on Monday’s 3% jump.
• Trump’s blunt warning: The president said the Iran ceasefire is “on life support” and called Tehran’s response “a piece of garbage.”
• Iran defiant: Tehran said its demands are legitimate — focused on ending the war, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, and restoring oil exports.
• War threat returns: A CNN report says Trump is more seriously considering resuming major combat operations against Iran.
• Aramco’s bombshell: CEO Amin Nasser warned that even if Hormuz reopened immediately, global oil flows could take months to normalize.
• Tehran’s demands: Iran wants compensation for war damage, removal of sanctions, and recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz.
• CPI on deck: U.S. inflation data is expected to show headline CPI accelerating to 3.7% from 3.3%, with core rising to 2.7%.
• PPI ahead: Wednesday’s producer prices report is expected to show building pipeline price pressures.
• Fed implications: Higher inflation could reinforce expectations rates will stay “higher for longer.”
• Trump-Xi summit looms: Talks this week could be pivotal given China’s status as Iran’s largest oil buyer and key diplomatic leverage.
• Last week’s reversal: Oil had initially crashed on diplomatic breakthrough hopes that have now faded.

Oil prices edged higher during Asian trading on Tuesday after climbing nearly 3% in the previous session, as U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” — dampening hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict.

As of 01:42 ET (05:42 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in July rose 0.8% to $105.01 a barrel, while Crude Oil WTI futures advanced 1.1% to $99.16 a barrel.

Trump Says Iran Ceasefire at Its Weakest Point

Market sentiment remained dominated by fears that the 10-week-old conflict could tighten global supply even further, particularly after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”

He described Tehran’s reply as “a piece of garbage,” adding that the truce was now at its weakest point.

Iran defended its position on Monday, saying its demands were legitimate and centered on ending the war, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, and restoring Iranian oil exports.

Tehran has also demanded compensation for war damage, the removal of sanctions, and recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz.

A CNN report late Monday revealed that Trump is more seriously considering resuming major combat operations against Iran as peace negotiations have dithered.

The comments renewed concerns over the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and fuel supply passes.

Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned this week that even if the strait reopened immediately, it could take months for global oil flows to normalize.

Oil had initially fallen sharply last week on expectations that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to a diplomatic breakthrough, but those hopes faded after Trump’s latest remarks.

Traders Await U.S. CPI Data, Trump-Xi Meeting

Investors are also closely watching U.S. inflation data later on Tuesday, with economists expecting the Consumer Price Index to accelerate as soaring fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict feed through to energy prices.

U.S. producer prices figures due on Wednesday are also expected to show mounting pipeline price pressures from higher gasoline and transportation costs.

Higher inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook by reinforcing expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer.

At the same time, traders are looking ahead to Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week, where discussions are expected to include Iran, trade, artificial intelligence, and global energy security.

Analysts said the talks could play a key role in determining the direction of the Iran conflict, given that China remains Iran’s largest oil buyer and retains significant diplomatic leverage with Tehran.