Loonie Keeps Its Bullish Rhythm Alive 2/6/2026

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair successfully held onto its recent gains in line with our previous technical projections, reaching the initial target of 1.3835 and printing an intraday high of 1.3848.

Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe

From a short-term perspective, the technical outlook remains cautiously constructive, with the pair continuing to draw support from the simple moving averages — which are reinforcing the upward price trajectory and validating the continuation of the positive short-term directional bias.

On the flip side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to display some modest negative signals as it edges toward overbought territory. This dynamic could temper the pace of the upside move or trigger some temporary corrective swings, though without compromising the overarching bullish structure thus far.

Sustained trading above the key support floors remains a constructive factor underpinning the continuation of positive momentum across the upcoming sessions.

Expected Scenarios:

Bullish (Most Likely) Scenario:

As long as trading remains anchored above the 1.3805 support floor, the bullish bias will retain the upper hand, with 1.3865 set as the initial target. Gains could subsequently extend upon a decisive break above 1.3865, targeting 1.3890 as the next level.

Bearish Scenario:

Conversely, a return and stabilization beneath 1.3800 would temporarily neutralize the bullish scenario and expose the pair to renewed negative pressure, with 1.3770 emerging as the initial downside target, followed by 1.3745 as the subsequent level.

Risk Alert: Risk levels remain elevated amid persistent trade frictions and geopolitical tensions — all scenarios should be considered plausible.

Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.

S1: 1.3805	R1: 1.3865
S2: 1.3770	R2: 1.3890
S3: 1.3745	R3: 1.3920