Loonie Clears a Pivotal Resistance Zone 4/6/2026

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

A powerful bullish trend continues to govern the price action of the USD/CAD pair within the projected upward trajectory, with the pair now beginning to mount an assault on the psychological resistance barrier at 1.3900.

Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe

With respect to intraday dynamics, the technical outlook continues to lean constructively, albeit with a degree of caution, as the pair continues to draw technical support from the simple moving averages — which are reinforcing the upward price curve and validating that the positive trend remains firmly in play across the short term.

On the flip side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to display some modest negative signals as a result of its approach toward overbought territory — a development that could temper the pace of the advance or trigger some temporary corrective swings, though without compromising the overarching bullish structure thus far.

Sustained trading above the key support floors remains a constructive factor underpinning the continuation of bullish control across the upcoming sessions.

Expected Scenarios:

Bullish (Most Likely) Scenario:

Sustained trading above the 1.3860 support floor preserves the advantage of the uptrend, with the initial target set at:

• 1.3940

Gains could subsequently extend upon a decisive breach of 1.3940, targeting:

• 1.3970 as the next level

Bearish Scenario:

Conversely, a return and stabilization beneath the 1.3860 level would temporarily neutralize the bullish scenario and expose the pair to renewed negative pressure, with:

• 1.3805 emerging as the initial downside target

Risk Alert: Risk levels remain elevated amid persistent trade frictions and geopolitical tensions — all scenarios should be considered plausible.

Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.

S1: 1.3860	R1: 1.3940
S2: 1.3805	R2: 1.3970
S3: 1.3780	R3: 1.4020