Gold Steadies Near 11-Week Low as Iran-Israel Pause Eases Pressure: CPI Data Could Be the Turning Point

Key Takeaways

• Gold little changed: Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,333.40 per ounce, while gold futures dipped 0.1% to $4,358.82 — both near 11-week lows.
• Monday’s low held: Bullion hit its weakest since March 23 before paring losses to end the prior session largely flat.
• Jobs data the primary culprit: Stronger-than-expected May NFP has driven rate hike bets — gold’s biggest headwind.
• 70% chance of December Fed hike: Markets have dramatically repriced the interest rate outlook.
• Iran-Israel pause eases pressure: Both sides halted attacks following Trump’s appeal, reducing immediate inflation risk.
• Trump’s “total victory” claim: The president said the U.S. was close to declaring victory and oil prices would fall sharply.
• Gold’s safe-haven paradox: Despite geopolitical tensions, the energy-inflation dynamic is keeping gold suppressed rather than supported.
• Dollar retreats slightly: The DXY dipped 0.2% after hitting a two-month high Monday — offering modest relief for bullion.
• CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday: Key inflation data will test whether oil’s rebound is feeding broader price pressures.
• Silver edges up: Spot silver gained 0.4% to $68.42 per ounce.
• Platinum rises: Spot platinum gained 0.3% to $1,767.60 per ounce.
• Copper firms: LME copper edged up 0.4% to $13,666.13 per ton.

Gold prices were little changed during Asian trading on Tuesday, hovering near an 11-week low, as a halt in hostilities between Iran and Israel eased some inflation concerns, while investors awaited key U.S. CPI data later this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

Spot gold was last up 0.1% at $4,333.40 an ounce by 02:33 ET (06:33 GMT). U.S. gold futures for August edged down 0.1% to $4,358.82 per ounce.

In the previous session, the yellow metal fell to its lowest since March 23 but later pared losses to end largely flat.

Rate Hike Fears Dominate

Bullion had come under heavy pressure following stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data released last week, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Markets are now pricing roughly a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike by December.

Market sentiment improved after Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks following a renewed flare-up in tensions over the weekend.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday evening that the United States was close to declaring a “total victory” in the Iran war, and that oil prices were likely to fall sharply.

Gold’s Unusual Dynamic During the Gulf Conflict

Despite gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset, the metal has struggled during much of the Gulf conflict. The war’s impact on crude oil markets has created an unusual dynamic for bullion.

Higher oil prices have fueled concerns that energy-driven inflation could remain elevated, prompting investors to scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts. This has pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

The U.S. Dollar Index dipped 0.2% on Tuesday after hitting a two-month high in the previous session.

The focus now turns to upcoming U.S. consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer prices figures on Thursday, which could help determine whether the recent rebound in oil prices is feeding into broader price pressures.

Among other precious metals, silver prices inched 0.4% higher to $68.42 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.3% to $1,767.60 per ounce.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.4% to $13,666.13 a ton, while U.S. copper futures rose 0.5% to $6.37 a pound.