Key Takeaways

• Gold recovers: Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,304.89 per ounce, rebounding from Wednesday’s 1.7% decline.
• Gold futures slip: U.S. gold futures fell 1.3% to $4,325.97 — a divergence reflecting futures market positioning ahead of the MOU signing.
• Iran MOU details revealed: The 14-point memorandum begins a 60-day negotiation period; toll-free Hormuz passage begins immediately, with full capacity restored within 30 days.
• Energy shock fears ease: The accord tempers concerns about a prolonged oil supply disruption, reducing energy-driven inflation fears.
• Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%: Wednesday’s decision was as expected, but the hawkish projections surprised markets.
• Nine officials see at least one 2026 hike: A marked shift from expectations at the start of the year.
• Warsh’s inflation resolve: In his first meeting as Fed chair, Warsh emphasized the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability.
• Fed raises inflation forecasts: The upward revisions prompted investors to scale back rate cut expectations and boosted the dollar.
• Dollar extends gains: The DXY edged 0.2% higher Thursday after jumping 0.6% post-Fed on Wednesday.
• Higher rates cap gold’s upside: The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion remains elevated; a stronger dollar makes gold pricier for overseas buyers.
• Silver rises 1.3%: To $68.78 per ounce.
• Platinum gains 1.1%: To $1,759.89 per ounce.
• Copper mixed: LME copper fell 0.9% to $13,713.33 per ton; U.S. copper futures rose 0.5%.

Gold prices rose on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s losses as investors welcomed the signing of a U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement, while weighing the Federal Reserve’s signal for a rate hike later this year.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,304.89 an ounce by 21:20 ET (01:20 GMT). However, U.S. gold futures slipped 1.3% to $4,325.97.

The yellow metal fell 1.7% in the previous session due to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields following the Fed’s latest policy decision.

Iran MOU Signed: 60 Days to a Final Deal

Bullion found support from optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran accord, which is expected to ease tensions in the Middle East and pave the way for the reopening of key energy export routes.

The 14-point memorandum begins a 60-day negotiation period during which Iran will allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal calls for traffic through the strait to be restored to its full capacity within 30 days.

The agreement has helped temper fears of a prolonged oil supply shock, reducing concerns about energy-driven inflation and supporting demand for bullion as a portfolio hedge.

Fed’s Hawkish Signals Cap the Rally

However, gains were capped after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday and signaled that policymakers still see scope for tighter monetary policy later this year.

Updated projections showed that nine of 19 Fed officials expect at least one rate increase in 2026 — a marked shift from expectations earlier this year.

In his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh maintained a firm stance on inflation, emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability.

The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts, prompting investors to scale back expectations for rate cuts and boosting the dollar.

A stronger greenback typically makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged 0.2% higher on Thursday, after jumping 0.6% in the previous session following the Fed announcement.

Among other precious metals, silver prices rose 1.3% to $68.78 per ounce, while platinum gained 1.1% to $1,759.89 per ounce.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.9% to $13,713.33 a ton, while U.S. copper futures rose 0.5% to $6.39 per pound.