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USD/CAD Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair extended its upward movement within a steady ascending trajectory, preserving its recent gains and now closing in on the 1.4200 level.
Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe
Across intraday price action, the technical outlook continues to lean constructively, albeit with a degree of caution. The pair continues to draw robust support from the simple moving averages — which are reinforcing the upward price curve and validating the continuation of the positive trend across the short term.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has successfully unwound the prior overbought condition — a development that mirrors the continued relative improvement in bullish momentum.
Compounding this constructive picture, sustained trading above the key support floors remains a supportive factor underpinning the continuation of buyers’ dominance across the upcoming sessions.
Expected Scenarios:
Bullish (Most Likely) Scenario:
As long as trading remains anchored above the 1.4140 support floor, the bullish bias will retain the upper hand, with 1.4210 set as the initial objective. Gains could subsequently extend upon a decisive break above 1.4210, targeting 1.4250 as the next level.
Bearish Scenario:
Conversely, a return and stabilization beneath 1.4140 would temporarily neutralize the bullish scenario and expose the pair to renewed negative pressure, with 1.4110 emerging as the initial downside target, followed by 1.4070 — before a potential rebound takes hold.
Risk Alert: Risk levels remain elevated amid persistent trade frictions and geopolitical tensions — all scenarios should be considered plausible.
Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.
| S1: 1.4150 | R1: 1.4210 |
| S2: 1.4110 | R2: 1.4255 |
| S3: 1.4075 | R3: 1.4295 |
