Key Takeaways

• Brent breaks $100: Futures slid 5.6% to $97.74 per barrel — the weakest level in nearly three weeks.
• WTI plunges: U.S. crude fell 6.1% to $90.71 per barrel.
• Rubio’s “pretty solid” framework: The Secretary of State said the U.S. and Iran have a solid framework deal on reopening Hormuz.
• Military threat remains: Rubio hinted at military action if Tehran does not accept a deal.
• Trump’s weekend claim: The president said the U.S. was close to finalizing a framework deal with Iran.
• Iran contradicts Trump: Iranian state media pushed back against claims that a deal was nearly final.
• “No rush”: Trump later walked back urgency, saying there was no hurry to strike a deal.
• Blockade stays: The U.S. naval blockade against Iran will remain until an agreement is reached.
• Nuclear standoff persists: Tehran has largely rejected U.S. demands to hand over enriched uranium holdings.
• Hormuz trickle: A few vessels passed through the strait Monday, but traffic remains far below pre-war levels.
• Toll plan looms: Iran is preparing to charge for commercial shipping through Hormuz — a move that could spark new clashes.
• Recovery will take months: The restoration of full Hormuz oil flows is expected to take several months even after any deal.
• 20% of global oil at stake: Hormuz’s continued closure remains the key price support factor for crude.

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Oil prices fell sharply during Asian trading on Monday, with Brent breaking below $100 a barrel after U.S. officials flagged some progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent oil futures for July slid 5.6% to $97.74 a barrel by 01:09 ET (05:09 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 6.1% to $90.71 a barrel.

Both contracts slid to their weakest levels in nearly three weeks.

Oil Extends Losses After Rubio Flags Progress on Hormuz

Oil prices fell further on Monday after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio flagged some progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Rubio said the U.S. and Iran had a “pretty solid” framework deal on reopening Hormuz, but hinted at military action if Tehran did not accept a deal.

His comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend said the U.S. was close to finalizing a framework deal with Iran.

Reports also showed both sides and Pakistani mediators flagging progress toward a deal. But Iranian state media contradicted Trump’s claims that a deal was nearly final.

Trump later said there was no rush to strike a deal with Iran, and that a naval blockade against the country would remain until an agreement was reached.

Washington and Tehran remained at odds over several key issues, most notably Iran’s nuclear activities. Tehran has largely rejected U.S. demands to hand over its enriched uranium holdings.

Trump reiterated his stance on Sunday that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Over the weekend, the president also made several social media posts hinting at military action against Iran.

Some Vessels Pass Through Hormuz; Weekly Losses Mount

Crude prices were nursing deep losses from last week amid growing bets that a U.S.-Iran deal was close.

Reports on Monday showed a few vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, although traffic still remained at a fraction of pre-war levels.

The channel’s closure has been a key support pillar for oil prices, given that prior to the Iran war, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supplies had flowed through Hormuz.

Iran was seen preparing measures to charge for commercial shipping through Hormuz — a move that could spur further clashes with the United States.

The restoration of oil flows through Hormuz is also expected to take several months even after any agreement is reached.