US home price index falls less than expected in October

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index released on Tuesday, US home prices continued its downtrend in October for the fourth straight months. The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these figures and was last seen losing 0.05% on the day at 104.26.

Seasonally adjusted HPI Composite for 20 cities: -0.5% M/M vs. -1.2% consensus and -1.2% prior. HPI Composite for 20 cities, not seasonally adjusted: -0.8% M/M vs. and -1.5% prior.

HPI Composite for 20 cities, not seasonally adjusted: +8.6% Y/Y vs. +8.1% consensus and +10.4% prior. “The National Composite Index fell -0.5% for the month, reflecting a -3.0% decline since the market peaked in June 2022,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand -4.6% below their June peaks after October declines of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.”

All 20 cities in the report, for October, have shown trends of short-term decline and medium-term deceleration. The best-performing cities for the month were Miami, with a 21.0% Y/Y gain, Tampa (up 20.5%), and Charlotte (+15.0%). The weakest cities were San Francisco, up 0.6% Y/Y, and Seattle, +4.5%.

As the Fed continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken.