Dallas Fed September manufacturing business index falls to -17.2

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index for September 2022 fell to -17.2 versus the prior reading of vs -12.9. Order rate has decreased over the past month. We are only working four days on some of our equipment. Although new orders did surge, there are still several uncertainties and key issues that give us pause on overall business conditions.

The general economic situation worsening, but customers are still buying because the oil industry is still making money and they see a bright future even though they will not talk about it. Therefore, we have hired a few new people to support the business that is coming over the next couple of months.

The personal electronics market shows signs of weakness and is expected to weaken further. Other markets, especially automobiles, remain strong. Inventory builds are reported throughout all channels. There is no optimism in the most positive outlook. Interest rate hikes will hit industry hard.
A dramatic shift in consumer behavior took place and it is impacting business volume. Beginning in May, demand for premium products started to wane as consumers shifted to less-expensive brands. This has accelerated as fuel and other costs have risen.

Employment 15.0 vs 15.6 last month
Hours worked 8.0 from 14.4 last month
New orders -6.4 from -4.4 last month
Production 9.3 vs 1.2 last month
Raw material price paid 37.1 vs 34.4 last month
Prices received 18.1 vs 26.8 last month month
Shipments 7.1 vs 3.4 last month
Growth rate of new orders -1.7 vs -14.7 last month
Finished goods inventories 3.3 vs 1.2 last month
Wages and benefits 36.6 vs 45.8 last month
Capital expenditures 13.6 vs 14.2 last month
The inflation metrics are sliding. Unfortunately, so are the growth measures.