US Retail Sales Preview

The US Census Bureau will release the August Retail Sales report on Thursday, September 15 at 12:30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of three major banks regarding the upcoming data.

Commerzbank

“The drop in gasoline prices is lifting consumer sentiment, which is why the usual sentiment indicators recovered noticeably in August. We expect retail sales to rise by 0.4% this month (consensus +0.3%).”

TDS

“We look for retail sales to lose speed in August (-0.5%), following a flat MoM print in July. Spending was likely dented by a sharp drop in gasoline station sales and another retreat in auto sales. We also look for slowing in control group sales to 0.2% following a string of firm MoM increases. Sales in the eating/drinking segment likely fell for the first time in several months.”

Wells Fargo

“Retail sales were flat in July, but after accounting for price changes, we estimate real sales rose 0.6%– the first volume gain in three months. Nominal sales likely dipped 0.2% in August, held down by a double-digit decline in gasoline prices last month and a slight decline in vehicle units sold. Savings at the pump, however, are likely to have supported sales in other categories as back-to-school shopping went into full swing. We look for sales ex-autos and gas to post another decent gain for August. Consumer spending has shown resilience this summer. However, with gas prices falling more slowly, borrowing rates rising and the jobs market cooling, we expect the staying power of the consumer to fade over the remainder of the year. Retail spending is likely to feel the pullback to a disproportionate extent after many goods purchases were pulled forward during the pandemic and spending on experiences was put on hold.”