NFP Preview: Forecasts From 5 Major Banks

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the April jobs report on Friday, May 6 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 5 major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Wells Fargo

“We have revised our forecast for April US NFP to 300K from 400K. Our forecasts for April Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) remain the same at 3.5% and 0.4%, respectively.”

Goldman Sachs

“We estimate NFP rose by 300K in April. We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, reflecting a solid or strong rise in household employment partially offset by another 0.1pp rise in labour force participation to 62.5%. While labour demand remains at elevated levels and dining activity has returned to normal, seasonally-adjusted job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labour market is tight.”

TDS

“We look for payrolls to have stayed solid in April, posting a similar figure to that of March. Indeed, we pencil in a net job gain of 400K. We also look for average hourly earnings to have advanced 0.3% MoM (5.4% YoY) after 0.4% in March. A strong report could perversely push the market to price in more tightening as the Fed reduced its optionality at its most recent meeting. That leaves a resilient USD vs EUR and yen very much the path of least resistance. A softer wages print should help to temporarily take the edge off but this will be short-lived until evidence of a peak/moderation in CPI emerges.”

Westpac

“We see job creation of 425K positions with a stable unemployment rate at 3.6%.”

SocGen

“We expect NFP to gain by 475K workers for April, modestly down from recent averages. We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6% for April. Returning workers imply more labour available.”