Key Takeaways

• Friday’s U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva were postponed after VP JD Vance scrapped his trip.
• Brent crude held steady near $80, up 0.31% on the day, as supply fears eased.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic is recovering, with 18 transits on June 17–18 — the highest of the conflict.
• The delay raises doubts over whether the interim ceasefire deal will hold.

A planned round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations has been shelved, Switzerland confirmed, after U.S. Vice President JD Vance abandoned plans to travel to Geneva for Friday’s session.

The Swiss foreign ministry said talks scheduled for the Burgenstock mountaintop resort have been delayed, adding that it remains ready to facilitate the negotiations. Vance had been due to meet Iranian negotiators to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program, just as a memorandum of understanding ending the more than three-month-old conflict took effect.

The 14-point agreement, signed earlier this week, called for an immediate halt to hostilities, the lifting of sanctions on Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It also opened a 60-day window for nuclear talks. President Donald Trump has long pushed to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, though Tehran maintains it is not pursuing a weapon. Iranian media reported that Tehran wants clearer evidence that Washington is implementing the deal before committing to the next round.

Market reaction

For markets, the postponement reintroduces uncertainty over the durability of the interim deal — a concern that has hung over crude prices throughout the conflict.

Brent crude traded near $80.10, up 0.25, or 0.31%, with the muted move suggesting traders are, for now, betting the ceasefire holds despite the diplomatic setback.

The central worry for investors has been an energy shock from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could ignite inflation and drag on global growth. The strait is a critical artery for world shipping, carrying roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran began in late February.

Encouragingly, flows are picking back up. Maritime intelligence group Windward recorded 18 transits across June 17–18 — the highest single-window count of the entire conflict.

Political friction

Tensions remain. Israel was excluded from the talks and has distanced itself from the accord while continuing its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon — a sticking point for Tehran. Vance criticized Israel on Thursday, saying Trump was the only world leader sympathetic to the country and taking aim at Israeli figures opposed to the Iran deal and de-escalation with Hezbollah.

Trump, in an interview with Axios, characterized the agreement as equivalent to his prior demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” reiterating that he signed it to avert an economic catastrophe.