Key Takeaways

• Crude jumps: Brent rose 2.6% to $95.49 per barrel, while WTI climbed 2.4% to $92.70 — sharply reversing last week’s late decline.
• Iran fires missiles at northern Israel: Multiple missile barrages were launched Sunday, with Israeli air defenses intercepting the projectiles.
• Retaliation for Beirut strike: Tehran said the attack was a response to Israeli operations in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
• Israel warns of further action: Israeli officials pledged a military response, heightening escalation fears.
• Most serious ceasefire breach: The exchange marked the gravest violation since the April truce took effect.
• Trump urges Netanyahu to stand down: Axios reports the president said he would tell Israel’s PM not to retaliate against the Iranian missiles.
• Last week’s gains reversed: Brent had settled near $93 and WTI around $90.54 on Friday on de-escalation hopes — now quickly unwound.
• Hormuz fears reignite: Fresh hostilities renewed concerns about disruptions to the strategic waterway handling a fifth of global oil.
• OPEC+ raises July quotas: The producer group agreed to increase output by 188,000 barrels per day — but Persian Gulf export blockages are preventing most members from implementing the hike.
• Peace deal hopes dim: The latest military exchanges represent a major setback for diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.

Oil prices jumped during Asian trading on Monday after Iran launched multiple missile barrages toward Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the outskirts of Beirut — threatening a fragile ceasefire and dimming hopes for a negotiated end to the conflict.

As of 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in August rose 2.6% to $95.49 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 2.4% to $92.70 per barrel.

Both contracts had ended last week with modest gains, with fresh hostilities across the Middle East dampening truce hopes.

Iran’s Missile Barrage Shatters Ceasefire

Iran fired several missiles toward northern Israel late Sunday, with Israeli air defenses intercepting the projectiles, according to regional reports.

Tehran said the attack was a response to Israeli operations in Beirut’s southern suburbs, while Israeli officials warned of further military action. The exchange marked the most serious breach of the ceasefire since it took effect in April.

The latest flare-up renewed concerns about disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping route that handles roughly a fifth of global oil consumption.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack, according to an Axios report.

Oil had fallen sharply late last week on hopes of de-escalation, with Brent settling near $93 and WTI around $90.54 on Friday — but those expectations were quickly reversed by the latest military exchanges.

OPEC+ Hike Remains Largely on Paper

On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to another increase in oil output quotas for July of 188,000 barrels per day, continuing its gradual rollback of voluntary production cuts. However, a blockage of exports from the Persian Gulf has prevented most producers from implementing the additional output.