Key Takeaways

• Sharp rebound: Brent crude rose 2.8% to $93.63 per barrel, while WTI advanced 3.1% to $90.05 — bouncing back after last week’s roughly 10% declines.
• Weekend strikes resume: The U.S. military struck Iranian military sites over the weekend, targeting air defenses, drone command facilities, and related infrastructure.
• Iran downs U.S. drone: The strikes followed Iran allegedly shooting down a U.S. drone over international waters.
• Iran retaliates: The IRGC attacked a U.S.-used air base, while Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted missile and drone strikes.
• Ceasefire talks stall: Negotiations toward a permanent U.S.-Iran agreement showed little sign of breakthrough.
• Trump’s mixed signals: The president said Iran remained interested in a deal, but key issues on security, sanctions, and maritime access remain unresolved.
• Israel escalates in Lebanon: Troops pushed deeper into southern Lebanon, escalating the campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
• Regional spillover fears: The Lebanon push revived concerns that the conflict could threaten energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
• Hormuz still below normal: Despite last week’s peace deal optimism, shipping through the strait remains well below pre-war levels.
• Market whipsawing: Oil has swung sharply on conflicting diplomatic and military headlines.
• 20% of global oil at stake: Hormuz’s disruption continues to underpin the market’s risk premium.

---

Oil prices jumped on Monday after sharp weekly losses, as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran over the weekend and Israel’s deeper push in Lebanon heightened concerns over Middle East supply risks.

As of 02:37 ET (06:37 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in August rose 2.8% to $93.63 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced 3.1% to $90.05 per barrel.

The gains followed weekly declines of roughly 10% for both contracts — their sharpest weekly drops in several weeks — after reports that Washington and Tehran were discussing a potential ceasefire framework that could eventually ease disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S.-Iran Tensions Intensify Amid Stalled Ceasefire Talks

Market sentiment turned cautious after the U.S. military said it struck Iranian military sites over the weekend, targeting air defenses, drone command facilities, and related infrastructure after Iran allegedly shot down a U.S. drone operating over international waters.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by attacking an air base used by U.S. forces, while Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted missile and drone attacks — underscoring the fragile security situation across the Gulf.

The renewed military confrontation came as negotiations aimed at securing a permanent U.S.-Iran ceasefire showed little sign of a breakthrough.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran remained interested in reaching a deal, but key issues surrounding regional security, sanctions, and maritime access remain unresolved.

Israel Pushes Deeper into Lebanon

Additionally, Israel ordered troops to push deeper into southern Lebanon, escalating its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah despite previous ceasefire efforts.

The move revived fears that the conflict could spill further across the region and threaten energy infrastructure or shipping routes.

The lack of clarity kept traders wary of further disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global oil shipments.

Oil markets have swung sharply in recent weeks as investors reacted to conflicting headlines on military developments and diplomacy.

Prices had fallen on Friday after reports suggested progress toward a U.S.-Iran understanding, but analysts noted that shipping through Hormuz remains below normal levels and that supply concerns have not disappeared.