Key Takeaways

• Brent breaks $100: The global benchmark plunged 4.7% to $95.55 per barrel, while WTI slid 5.1% to $91.70.
• Framework deal reached: Iran and the U.S. have reached a framework of an agreement, per an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson.
• Hormuz specifics missing: The current MOU draft does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz.
• “Not imminent”: Iran’s spokesperson cautioned an agreement cannot be said to be imminent, though both sides have concluded on a range of topics.
• U.S. blockade to lift: Under the reported deal, Washington would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
• Toll threat dropped: Tehran’s foreign ministry said Iran will not be charging tolls on vessels traversing Hormuz — potentially removing a major sticking point.
• “Services require a price”: Iran’s nuanced language suggests fees may still apply but won’t be framed as formal tolls.
• Trump says “no rush”: The president told his representatives not to rush into a deal and said the blockade stays until an agreement is “reached, certified, and signed.”
• Some vessels moving: A few ships passed through Hormuz on Monday, though traffic remains a fraction of pre-war levels.
• Recovery will take months: Analysts warn oil flows could take several months to normalize even after a deal.
• Prices may not fully recover: Energy prices are unlikely to fully return to pre-war levels in the near term.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, with Brent breaking below $100 a barrel, after U.S. officials flagged some progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent oil futures, the global oil benchmark, dropped 4.7% to $95.55 a barrel by 05:01 ET (09:01 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 5.1% to $91.70 a barrel.

Framework Deal Reached — But Hormuz Details Still Vague

Iran and the United States have reached a framework of a deal to end their more than two-month-old conflict, but a potential memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report citing an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson.

An agreement between Tehran and Washington cannot be said to be imminent, although both sides have reached conclusions on a range of topics, the spokesperson said, according to Reuters.

The comments come after media reports over the weekend — quoting a senior White House official — suggested that a framework deal had been reached. The reports said an agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows. The strait has been all but shuttered to tanker traffic for weeks, driving up oil prices and fueling worries over an inflation burst in countries around the world.

In exchange, the U.S. would reportedly lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Tehran Drops Toll Threat — With a Caveat

Notably, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said that Tehran will not be charging tolls from vessels traversing the strait — potentially reversing a major threat that Tehran had been moving to solidify a financial stranglehold over the conduit. However, the spokesperson noted that any services provided “require a price but should not be presented as tolls.”

Writing on social media, U.S. President Donald Trump also flagged that he had told his representatives “not to rush into a deal,” adding that the American blockade on Iranian ports would stay in effect until an agreement is “reached, certified, and signed.”

Hormuz Recovery Could Take Months

Reports on Monday said a few vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz, although traffic still remained at a fraction of pre-war levels. Analysts have also warned that even if the war were to end soon, the restoration of oil flows through the conduit could take several months — and energy prices may not return to where they were before the start of the conflict.