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CAD Moves Along a Descending Trendline 5/12/2025

A gradual downward trend dominated USD/CAD movements, with the pair reaching a low of 1.3925.

Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe:

The simple moving averages continue to apply downward pressure, while the pair trades along a steep descending trend line—both reinforcing the bearish structure.

Likely Scenario:

As long as the price remains below 1.3980, further declines are expected. A confirmed break beneath 1.3925 may open the path toward the initial support at 1.3900, with potential extension to 1.3870.

Conversely, a recovery above the psychological resistance of 1.4000 could temporarily halt the downtrend, allowing a corrective rebound toward 1.4040 and subsequently 1.4070.

Warning: Today brings highly significant U.S. economic releases, including the core PCE price index (monthly and annual) and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Elevated volatility is likely around the time of the data.

Warning: Trading risks remain high amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, and all scenarios are possible.

Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.

S1: 1.3925R1: 1.3980
S2: 1.3900R2: 1.4020
S3: 1.3870R3: 1.4065

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