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The Canadian dollar pair defied the bearish expectations outlined in our previous report. The negative scenario had depended on sustained trading below the key resistance level at 1.3685. However, the pair managed to stage a short-term bullish technical rebound, invalidating the earlier downside bias.
Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe:
The pair is currently supported by a resurgence in buying interest, bolstered by the recovery of the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and improving momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also producing positive signals, which support the likelihood of continued upward movement.
Most Likely Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 1.3685, the bullish momentum is expected to persist. The pair may target 1.3700 as an initial resistance, with further gains potentially extending toward 1.3735.
Market Catalyst:
Traders should stay alert ahead of today’s release of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes—a major market event that could trigger sharp volatility across dollar pairs.
Caution:
The risk environment remains elevated amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions. All scenarios remain on the table, and traders are advised to exercise proper risk management.
Risk Disclaimer: Amid global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, risk levels remain high. Traders should proceed with caution and be prepared for a range of market scenarios.
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