China Anticipates Record Travel During Lunar New Year Amid Economic Struggles

China is bracing for an unprecedented travel surge during the upcoming Lunar New Year, with authorities predicting a staggering 9 billion domestic trips during the 40-day Spring Festival period starting January 14. This forecast, despite the country’s sluggish economic recovery, reflects a deep cultural tradition of family reunions during the holiday season.

Travel Trends and Projections

• Record Numbers Expected: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) projects that this year will match last year’s forecast of 9 billion trips, a significant rebound from the 8.4 billion trips logged in 2024.
• Modes of Travel: Self-driving road trips are expected to dominate, accounting for about 80% of total journeys. Train travel will see a record 510 million trips, a 5.5% year-on-year increase, while air travel is projected to hit an all-time high of 90 million trips.

Economic Challenges

This year’s festivities occur against the backdrop of an economy struggling to regain momentum after three years of stringent pandemic restrictions. Key factors include:

• Property Market Crisis: A prolonged slump in the real estate sector continues to weigh on economic growth.
• External Pressures: Exports, one of the few bright spots in China’s economy, face uncertainties, including the potential for new U.S. tariffs under the incoming Donald Trump administration.
• Government Stimulus: Beijing has introduced measures such as interest rate cuts and consumer goods trade-in schemes, but these have yet to deliver a sustained recovery.

Adjusted Travel Metrics

China’s Ministry of Transport has revised its travel metrics in recent years to better capture the scale of domestic travel. Updates include:

• Inclusion of Self-Driving Trips: Starting in 2023, the metric expanded to count road trips on major expressways and was further updated this year to include additional highways.
• Historical Context: In 2019, prior to the pandemic, 2.98 billion trips were recorded during the Spring Festival travel rush.

Outlook

While the anticipated travel boom underscores the cultural importance of the Lunar New Year, it also highlights the resilience of consumer activity in the face of economic headwinds. However, sustained economic recovery will depend on addressing structural challenges and external trade dynamics.

The Lunar New Year travel rush will be a key test of China’s ability to balance cultural traditions with economic realities, providing insights into the broader trajectory of the nation’s post-pandemic recovery.