Key Takeaways

• Modest gains: Brent crude rose 0.6% to $108.84 per barrel, while WTI added 0.6% to $102.59 — both bouncing back after Friday’s losses.
• No deal in sight: The absence of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement continues to constrain supplies and prop up prices above $100.
• Hormuz still choked: Shipping through the strategic waterway remains severely restricted, despite Trump’s pledge to assist stranded vessels.
• Negotiations ongoing: Both sides assessed each other’s responses over the weekend, but key sticking points remain.
• Nuclear vs. blockade impasse: Trump prioritizes a nuclear deal, while Iran wants nuclear talks deferred until after the war and existing blockades lifted first.
• OPEC+ raises output: The producer group agreed to lift production targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June — the third consecutive monthly hike.
• Hike mostly on paper: Additional barrels are unlikely to materialize while the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf supplies.
• UAE exit factored in: The June increase matches May’s hike minus the UAE’s share, after the country left OPEC on May 1.
• Analyst view: Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva warns risks remain “tilted toward further upside” without a sustained resolution.

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, supported by the lingering absence of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that has kept supplies tightly constrained and crude prices firmly above $100 a barrel.

Brent crude futures climbed 67 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.84 a barrel at 0400 GMT, after settling down $2.23 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 65 cents — also 0.6% — to $102.59 a barrel, after shedding $3.13 in the previous session.

“The broader market remains tightly supported by persistent supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Unless there is a clear and sustained resolution that restores normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to remain elevated, with risks still tilted toward further upside.”

Trump’s Hormuz Pledge Fails to Move the Needle

President Donald Trump said the United States would begin efforts to assist ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, but prices held above $100 a barrel as no peace deal materialized and shipping through the strategic waterway remained tightly restricted.

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued over the weekend, with both sides assessing each other’s positions.

Trump has made securing a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority, but Iran wants to defer any nuclear talks until after the war and first see the lifting of rival blockades on Gulf shipping.

OPEC+ Raises Output — But Mostly on Paper

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced it would raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

The hike matches the increment agreed for May, minus the share previously contributed by the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1. However, the additional barrels are expected to remain largely theoretical as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.