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The USD/CAD pair has retreated significantly after failing to establish a foothold above the psychological resistance at 1.3600, which imposed clear downward pressure and steered the pair into a renewed downtrend.
Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe
On the short-term horizon, the simple moving averages continue to weigh on the price, functioning as a dynamic resistance barrier that reinforces the continuation of the prevailing short-term downtrend.
Compounding this picture, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory — a reading that points to persistent negative momentum, though it also raises the prospect of a potential deceleration in the decline without invalidating the broader bearish trend.
Most Likely Scenario:
As long as trading remains capped below the 1.3600 resistance ceiling, the bearish bias will retain the upper hand, with the initial target set at:
- 1.3560
A confirmed break beneath this level would deepen the losses toward:
- 1.3530 as the subsequent objective
On the flip side, a sustained recovery and stabilization above the 1.3620 threshold would temporarily neutralize the bearish scenario and pave the way for a corrective rebound, with an initial upside target at:
- 1.3660
Risk Alert: Risk levels remain elevated amid persistent trade frictions and geopolitical tensions — all scenarios should be considered plausible.
Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.
| S1: 1.3560 | R1: 1.3620 |
| S2: 1.3530 | R2: 1.3660 |
| S3: 1.3500 | R3: 1.3705 |
