Canadian Employment Preview: Forecasts From Three Major Banks

Canadian July jobs report due out at 12:30 GMT. An increase of 177,500 positions is expected. here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of Three major banks regarding the Canadian employment report.

CIBC

“on the top of the very good news for employment in June, which coincided with the reopening of many businesses, we expect the Labour Force Survey will show another solid increase in hiring for July. Job creation likely continued during the month in the sectors that had been hardest hit by COVID-19 restrictions earlier in the year. The addition of 100K more jobs would mean that the combined hiring in June and July added up to more than the number lost during the third wave. There might, however, be some evidence of labour shortages, similar to those seen in the US during the early days of its reopening, albeit likely to a lesser extent. Anecdotal evidence from conversations with a range of businesses in Canada suggest that sourcing workers has been somewhat difficult even in industries less affected by covid. It could become more of an issue later this summer as idle labour supply falls even further.”

TDS

“We look for the labour market to maintain recent momentum with another 215K jobs added in July, pulling the unemployment rate 0.5pp lower to 7.3%. Services should drive job growth on rehiring across industries most impacted by COVID-19, and if realized our forecast would leave total employment just 125K (-0.7%) below pre-COVID levels.”

Citibank

“We expect a solid reopening-period job growth for the second month in a row with 180K jobs added in July, just slightly softer than the 231K added for the first month of reopening in June. With activity likely to continue to climb in August, the employment gains likely means substantial progress towards the BoC’s outlined employment goal necessary for considering rate increases is much closer (currently around 550K after the June report).”