US Stock Futures Slip as Investors Await Inflation Data; Oil Gains on Syria Turmoil

US stock index futures edged lower Monday as investors paused to consolidate last week’s record gains, awaiting key November inflation data for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Stock Futures Slightly Down

At 05:45 ET (10:45 GMT), futures for the:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 30 points, or 0.1%.
• S&P 500 fell 8 points, or 0.1%.
• Nasdaq 100 declined by 45 points, or 0.2%.

This minor pullback follows a week where technology stocks drove Wall Street indices to record highs. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose approximately 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed over 3% for the week. In contrast, the Dow Jones lagged, declining 0.6% over the same period.

CPI Data in Focus

Investors are taking a cautious stance as they await Wednesday’s release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts expect:

• A year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7%, with a monthly rise of 0.2%.
• Core CPI inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.

These figures are critical as the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming December meeting. However, policymakers are expected to slow the pace of cuts in 2025 due to persistently high inflation and a resilient labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls and Economic Outlook

Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls growth in November offered mixed signals, as the shrinking participation rate and underwhelming manufacturing payrolls tempered the otherwise robust data.

Middle East Turmoil Adds to Uncertainty

Investors are closely monitoring the geopolitical implications of a major regime change in Syria, where rebel forces have overthrown President Bashar al-Assad and seized control of Damascus. Al-Assad is reportedly in Moscow, while Israeli forces have entered Syria, adding to regional tensions.

This instability has fueled oil price gains, with US crude futures (WTI) up 1.1% to $67.96 a barrel and Brent crude rising 0.9% to $71.75 a barrel.

Corporate Spotlight: Oracle and S&P 500 Outlook

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is set to report quarterly earnings after Monday’s close, providing insights into the technology sector’s health. Meanwhile, Citigroup (NYSE:C) forecasts the S&P 500 to climb to 6,500 by the end of 2025, driven by earnings growth, a stable macroeconomic environment, and diversified sectoral performance. However, the firm warns of heightened market volatility compared to 2024.

Looking Ahead

This week’s focus will remain on inflation data, Federal Reserve policy cues, and ongoing geopolitical developments. Additionally, earnings from Oracle and macroeconomic signals will help shape investor sentiment as 2024 nears its close.