US: ISM Services PMI Surges to 58.3 in March versus 58.4 expected

The headline ISM Services PMI figure rose to 58.3 in March from 56.5 the month before, a tad lower than the expected rise to 58.4, according to the latest release from the Institute of Supply Management.

Subindices:
Business Activity rose slightly to 55.5 from 55.1 in February.
Prices Paid rose to 83.8 from 83.1.
New Orders rose to 60.1 from 56.1.
Employment rose to 54.0 from 48.5.

The fairly robust ISM Services PMI survey did not have much of an impact on market sentiment, which was already improving in wake of the US market open at 1430BST.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In March, the Services PMI® registered 58.3 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than February’s reading of 56.5 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to the reading of 55.1 percent in February, and the New Orders Index figure of 60.1 percent is 4 percentage points higher than the February reading of 56.1 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 63.4 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 66.2 percent reported in February. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 83.8 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from the February figure of 83.1 percent and its second-highest reading ever, behind December 2021 (83.9 percent). Services businesses are continuing to replenish inventories, as the Inventories Index expanded for a second straight month; the reading of 51.7 percent is up 0.9-percentage point from February’s figure of 50.8 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (40.2 percent, down 15.1 percentage points from February’s reading of 55.3 percent) returned to contraction in March, indicating that inventories are in ‘too low’ territory and not meeting current business requirements.”

Nieves continues, “According to the Services PMI®, 17 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 22nd consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 146 months. There was an uptick in business activity in March, but respondents have indicated that they continue to be impacted by capacity constraints, logistical challenges and inflation. Labor shortages have eased slightly, as COVID-19 cases have declined and public-health restrictions have been relaxed. Geopolitical concerns — particularly the Russia/Ukraine war, which has impacted material costs, most notably fuel and chemical prices — have created uncertainty for many businesses.”

Unlike its much older kin, the ISM Manufacturing Series, there is relatively little history for ISM’s Non-Manufacturing data, especially for the headline Composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows the Non-Manufacturing Composite.