US Dollar Holds Recent Gain Amid Promising Data, Ahead of FOMC Meeting

US Dollar maintains momentum ahead of Fed decision and labor market update. US JOLTs and CB Consumer Confidence figures exceed expectations. Fed is expected to stay data-dependent and keep possibilities open for a September cut.

The US Dollar, measured by the DXY index, is trying to continue its upward trend, but slides 0.04%. Despite uncertainties hanging in the air over the Fed’s next steps, optimism about the robustness of the US economy is helping the Greenback to gain ground. The forthcoming decision from the Fed due on Wednesday alongside the labor market data expected this week will be pivotal indicators for the market.

The US is starting to show signs of disinflation that strengthen the market’s confidence in a possible rate cut in September. However, the overall economy remains resilient as evidenced by the incoming data, which might delay the pivot to rate cuts.

Daily digest market movers: US Dollar firms up following upbeat labor and consumer confidence data. US consumer sentiment improved slightly in July with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rising to 100.3 from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.

Present Situation Index had a slight decline to 133.6 from 135.5, as the Expectations Index climbed to 78.2 from 72.8. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday that on the last business day of June there were 8.184 million job openings.

That figure exceeded the market expectation of 8.03 million and follows the 8.23 million openings (revised from 8.14 million) reported in May. Week’s highlight will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which ends on Wednesday with a widely expected hold for interest rates.

US economy’s strong performance negates the immediate need for Fed to lower interest rates, but investors expected the Fed to keep possibilities open for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

The DXY index, after rebounding from the 200-day SMA, has now successfully climbed above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The key signals such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), although still remaining on the negative side, are inching toward the positive side, brightening the outlook.

There is noticeable support at 104.50, one more than Monday’s 104.30 level, and resistance is eyed at 104.70 and higher around 105.00.