Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
U.S. stock futures moved lower on Monday as investors digested the implications of rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and speculation over the central bank’s next chair.
By 06:28 ET (11:28 GMT):
- S&P 500 futures were down 42 points (-0.6%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures fell 182 points (-0.7%)
- Dow Jones futures slipped 220 points (-0.5%)
The moves come after a holiday-shortened week in which all three major U.S. indices gained more than 3%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended November higher, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.51%, reflecting persistent concerns over stretched tech valuations and heavy, often debt-fueled, spending on artificial intelligence.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Drive Sentiment
Market pricing now indicates around an 88% probability that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point cut at its December 9–10 meeting, up sharply from odds in the mid-40% range just over a week ago.
Expectations have been bolstered by dovish signals from several Fed officials, who have hinted that economic conditions may justify a rate reduction. However, uncertainty remains elevated due to a scarcity of fresh data following the recent federal government shutdown.
This week’s calendar includes a string of key U.S. releases, such as:
- Manufacturing and services activity gauges
- Consumer sentiment data
- Private payrolls figures
Big-box retailers will also be in focus after early figures showed a strong pickup in online spending during last week’s Black Friday sales.
Next Fed Chair in the Spotlight
At the same time, markets are closely watching the evolving narrative around Fed leadership. U.S. President Donald Trump said he has decided on his preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, but has not yet revealed the name.
Reports suggest the shortlist includes:
- Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser
- Kevin Warsh, former Fed Governor
- Christopher Waller, current Fed Governor
Hassett is widely viewed as the frontrunner, though he has played down the speculation, saying only that he would be “happy to serve.”
A change at the top could have significant implications for the policy outlook, especially given Trump’s repeated calls for rapid and aggressive rate cuts. Markets see the potential for a more dovish Fed under a chair closely aligned with the White House, which could support equities further—particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as retail, growth, and high-duration tech stocks.
Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, is due to speak later Monday. However, with the Fed in its pre-meeting blackout period, he is not expected to offer any fresh guidance on the path of interest rates.
