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U.S. stock index futures traded higher on Monday as investors positioned for the last full trading week of the year, with markets set to digest a dense run of U.S. economic releases that could shape interest-rate expectations into early 2026.
By 05:30 ET (10:30 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 205 points (+0.4%), S&P 500 futures gained 32 points (+0.5%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 123 points (+0.5%). The move higher follows a softer end to last week, when weak guidance and cautious commentary from AI-exposed bellwethers such as Oracle and Broadcom reignited concerns about the sustainability—and near-term payoff—of heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Payrolls and inflation take center stage
The macro calendar is expected to dominate trading this week, especially after the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut last week reinforced the message that future moves will remain data dependent.
- Tuesday: The November jobs report is due, with economists expecting a modest payroll gain of around 35,000 (per Reuters estimates). Because October data was delayed during the shutdown-related blackout, the government is expected to fold that missing information into the November report. Markets will also focus on the unemployment rate, with fresh clarity in labor-market conditions especially important after the 43-day shutdown disrupted official reporting.
- Thursday: Investors will turn to November CPI, a key inflation input for the Fed. Any signs that inflation is cooling further—alongside labor-market softening—could strengthen expectations for additional cuts in 2026.
The key market question is whether incoming data confirms a “cooling but not collapsing” economy. A benign mix (softer inflation, manageable labor weakening) would likely support equities and rate-sensitive sectors, while a hotter inflation print or an unexpectedly resilient labor report could revive “higher-for-longer” fears.
Micron earnings seen as an AI sentiment test
On the corporate side, Micron Technology’s results are shaping up as one of the week’s key catalysts, particularly after Oracle and Broadcom raised doubts about margins, returns, and timing of monetization from AI-related capex.
While sentiment around Micron is described as notably bullish—especially tied to a potential multi-year demand cycle for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in advanced AI systems—investors will be listening closely for:
- pricing and supply tightness signals in HBM,
- guidance on AI-driven revenue contribution,
- and capex discipline vs. demand visibility.
Goldman still constructive on S&P 500 outlook
Even with renewed debate around tech valuations, Goldman Sachs remains upbeat on the broader market trajectory over the next year. The bank expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise to $305 in 2026 (about 12% annualized growth), supported by forecasts for faster U.S. GDP growth and a softer dollar, alongside revenue growth and modest margin expansion.
Overall, Monday’s early strength suggests investors are looking past last week’s AI nerves—for now—while keeping positioning light ahead of payrolls and CPI, which are likely to drive the next meaningful move in both yields and equities.
