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U.S. stock index futures ticked slightly higher on Friday, with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of two major potential market catalysts: the release of the monthly U.S. jobs report and a possible Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration’s global tariffs.
By early morning trading, Dow Jones futures were up 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures also gained 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures outperformed modestly, rising 0.2%, supported by selective strength in technology shares.
Wall Street ended Thursday’s session on a mixed note. The S&P 500 finished largely unchanged, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4% as technology stocks paused after recent gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6%, helped by strength in energy and industrial names. Despite the uneven close, all three major indexes remained on track for weekly gains, with the Dow leading performance.
Payrolls Data in Focus for Federal Reserve Signals
Investor attention was firmly centered on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day, a key indicator of labor market health and an important input for Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added around 66,000 jobs in December, slightly higher than November’s 64,000 increase. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge lower to 4.5% from 4.6%, suggesting continued cooling but not a sharp deterioration in labor conditions.
Employment data has taken on added significance after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates multiple times in 2025, prioritizing concerns about a weakening labor market even as inflation pressures proved slower to fade. Markets are currently pricing in two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, though policymakers remain divided over the appropriate pace of easing.
Beyond macro data, investors are also positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings season, which is expected to shed light on how companies are navigating elevated borrowing costs and slower global growth.
Tariffs Ruling Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty
Adding to market caution is the prospect of a Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s use of emergency economic powers to impose sweeping global tariffs. The case challenges whether a 1977 law grants the president authority to levy such duties.
During hearings late last year, several justices expressed skepticism toward the administration’s legal justification. If the court rules against the tariffs, the U.S. government could be required to refund an estimated $150 billion in duties already paid by importers, a scenario that could have wide-ranging fiscal and market implications.
Oil Prices Head for Third Straight Weekly Gain
In commodities, oil prices moved higher and were on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by renewed concerns over supply disruptions.
Brent crude rose around 0.5% to trade near $62.30 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained a similar amount to about $58.05 a barrel. Both benchmarks surged more than 3% on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses in the week.
Market sentiment was underpinned by escalating geopolitical risks. Civil unrest in Iran raised concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East, while uncertainty continued to surround Venezuela following the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro and President Trump’s comments suggesting Washington could exert long-term control over the country’s oil sector.
Trump is expected to meet with executives from major U.S. oil companies later Friday to discuss Venezuela’s vast energy resources, keeping energy markets firmly in focus as the week draws to a close.
