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U.S. stock futures were mixed on Friday, as the market tried to balance two opposing forces: a supportive Fed backdrop that’s improving liquidity and risk appetite, versus renewed skepticism about AI-related valuations and payoff timelines, which is weighing on mega-cap and semiconductor-linked sentiment.
At 06:05 ET (11:05 GMT):
- Dow futures +117 (+0.2%)
- S&P 500 futures -7 (-0.1%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures -137 (-0.5%)
That divergence is the story: Dow/Cyclicals/Value bid, Nasdaq/Growth/AI complex offered.
What’s Moving the Market
1) Fed cut + T-bill buying = liquidity tailwind (risk-on… but selective)
The Fed’s 25 bps cut and Powell’s less-hawkish-than-feared tone have kept the “soft-landing + easing” narrative alive.
But the bigger market signal here is the Fed’s plan to buy $40B/month in Treasury bills, which traders interpret as a liquidity injection that tends to support:
- broader equities (especially cyclicals/financials),
- credit,
- and risk assets generally.
That’s helping explain why Dow futures are positive even as tech is struggling.
2) AI trade faces a “profitability & timeline” reality check
The tech drag is coming from the market re-pricing a familiar question:
“How long until all this GenAI capex produces real margins and earnings?”
Oracle’s weaker outlook already rattled that theme, and now investors are applying the same lens to other AI-adjacent names—especially those whose near-term earnings are getting squeezed by spending.
Single-Stock Drivers Investors Care About
Broadcom: strong numbers, but margin/timing concerns dominate
Broadcom’s pullback reflects quality of growth concerns, not just top-line:
- its non-AI, higher-margin business looks soft near-term,
- and big AI deal economics appear back-end loaded (returns pushed out toward 2027+),
even though it cited a large AI backlog.
Net-net: the market is treating it as “great demand, but not yet great earnings visibility.”
Costco: solid quarter, but the market wants forward guidance clarity
Costco beat on revenue/profit and delivered strong same-store sales (ex-fuel). That’s typically a “steady compounder” signal, especially in a late-cycle environment.
Lululemon: CEO change + raised profit outlook = catalyst pop
Management change plus upgraded guidance is the kind of combo that can trigger re-rating momentum—especially when consumer discretionary is already rate-sensitive and supported by easing expectations.
