Treasury Yields Rebound On Hot Inflation Data

Treasury yields have noticeably rebounded on Wednesday after US consumer price data revealed that the pace of inflation slowed in April but has not peaked as prices rose more than economists expected and ensured the Fed will go ahead with monetary policy tightening.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 3.1 basis points to 3.025%, while the two-year note’s yield, which often reflects the Fed rate outlook, hit a more than three-year high of 2.858%. The two-year was last up 8.2 basis points at 2.705%.

The Labour Department said the consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since August, while on an annual basis it rose 8.3%, less than the year-over-year 8.5% pace in March but more than analysts’ 8.1% forecast.

The data was hotter than expected, and markets turned on it. The Fed will likely stay the course because the estimates are not that far. It is not extremely shocking, but it shows that inflation is very much front and center.

The Fed last week raised its policy rate by half a percentage point, the biggest hike in 22 years, after it started raising rates in March when it took an aggressive stance on inflation. Rate hikes alone will not solve the tight US labour market, supply chain problems, rising commodity prices or the effects of fiscal stimulus on inflation.
Markets are widely advised not to assume that the Fed will be able to control inflation with hikes alone. If the Fed is too aggressive with its efforts to slow inflation, policymakers could end up hurting the overall US economy and the jobs market.

Treasury yields had fallen before the CPI was released from Monday’s highs that pushed the 10-year note to a peak last seen in November 2018. The 30-year Treasury bond’s yield rose 3.8 basis points to 3.167%. A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 31.8 basis points.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose to 2.97% after closing at 2.921% on Tuesday. The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.674%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.7% a year for the next decade.

The US dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap , seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed’s quantitative easing, was last at 2.577%.