Russia’s Sanctions Keep Investors On Alert

Asian markets closed today’s trading up across the board, with the exception of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which edged down 0.24% while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.19%, China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.32%, India’s Sensex advanced 0.70%, and South Korea’s KOSPI finished trading up 0.84%.

Taiwan’s equity markets are closed today to commemorate Peace Day. By mid-day trading, European equity indices are down across the board and US futures point to a rough market open later this morning.

Today sees financial markets coming to grips with not just sanctions on the sale of goods to Russia but what increasingly is becoming a cancellation of sorts for the country.

Over the weekend, an increasing number of countries have denied Russian airlines access to airspace, and a number of Russian banks have been denied access from the international payments system known as SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), Russia’s sovereign debt has been downgraded to below investment grade by S&P with Moody’s issuing a downgrade warning.

Even Switzerland has indicated its willingness to freeze Russian assets while the $1.3 trillion sovereign fund for Norway has stated it will begin divesting Russian assets.

Given that Russia’s stock market is closed and the central bank has declared it has ordered brokers to not execute sell orders by foreign nationals, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

The absence of such a global player is unprecedented and has yet to be fully realized, but the largest impact for US investors is in the energy market as Russia accounts for approximately 11% of US oil imports.

For Russia’s part, it has simultaneously put its nuclear forces on “Alert” and is also sitting down for talks with Ukraine this morning with the goal of establishing a ceasefire, which Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed doubts about a positive outcome.

There are high levels of uncertainty in the markets this morning, so this may be a bumpy ride today.

Today sees a mix of preliminary and final GDP figures from various Nordic countries and Switzerland. Finland and Sweden announced YoY Q4 2021 GDP of 3.00% and 5.20%.

Finland surprised to the downside compared to the 4.50% estimate and the previous figure of 3.60% as did Sweden, compared to the 5.20% estimate and the previous figure of 6.20%.

Switzerland posted YoY Q4 2021 GDP of 3.70% as compared to the previously reported figure of 3.80%.