Oil: Negative pressure continues 7/3/2025

US crude oil futures fell significantly, surpassing the target of 66.20 mentioned in our previous report, and reached a low of $65.62 per barrel.

Technical Outlook

• Bearish Indicators:
  • Prices continue to trade below the simple moving averages, reinforcing the daily downward trend.
  • The break of the 68.20 support level—which has now turned into resistance under the role exchange concept—confirms the bearish outlook.
• Downside Scenario:
  • The next target is 65.75; a break below this level could accelerate the downward trend, opening the path toward 65.00 and 64.70.
• Bullish Contingency:
  • A return to trading stability above 67.20 may temporarily halt the decline, leading to short-term recovery attempts with an initial target of 67.80.

Risk Warning

• Economic Data Impact:
  • High-impact US economic data—including non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates, and average wages—is expected today, which could lead to significant volatility during the news release.
• Market Uncertainty:
  • Ongoing trade tensions and other market risks mean that multiple scenarios remain possible.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. This market’s risk level remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which could result in heightened price fluctuations.

S1: 65.75	R1: 67.20
S2: 65.00	R2: 67.80
S3: 64.30	R3: 68.60