Oil is facing a selling wave 5/3/2025

US crude oil futures experienced a selling wave in line with our negative outlook, reaching the first target at $67.20 and recording a low of $66.80 per barrel.

Technical Outlook

• Bearish Signals:
  • Prices continue to trade below the simple moving averages, reinforcing the daily downward trend.
  • The break of the 68.80 support level—now acting as resistance per the role exchange concept—further confirms the bearish bias.
• Downside Scenario:
  • A move below $66.80 is likely to accelerate the downward trend, potentially leading prices toward $67.20 and further down to $66.20.
• Bullish Scenario:
  • Conversely, a return to stability above $68.90 could temporarily halt the decline, prompting short-term recovery attempts with an initial target of $69.45.

Risk Warning

• Economic Data Impact: High-impact US economic data, particularly the “non-farm private sector employment data,” is expected today, which may lead to heightened volatility in prices and news releases.
• Market Uncertainty: Ongoing trade tensions and other risks remain significant, and multiple scenarios are possible.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. This market’s risk level remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which could result in heightened price fluctuations.

S1: 67.25	R1: 68.90
S2: 66.20	R2: 69.45
S3: 65.65	R3: 70.50