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Oil below the moving average 3/4/2025

U.S. crude oil futures are experiencing volatility, reversing recent gains and opening the session with a bearish gap. At the time of writing, prices have dipped to a session low of $69.29 per barrel.

From a technical perspective, the price has settled below the 50-day simple moving average at $70.90, which now acts as a resistance level under the role-reversal principle. This bearish setup is further supported by negative signals emerging on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) across short-term time frames.

Given these conditions, further downside pressure may persist in the short term, with the next target at $68.75. A confirmed break below this level could extend losses toward the $67.60 support zone.

Conversely, a return to stable trading above $70.90 would invalidate the current bearish outlook and could spark a recovery, with initial upside targets seen near $71.70.

Caution: High-impact U.S. economic data releases today—including Weekly Unemployment Claims and the ISM Services PMI—may trigger heightened price volatility.

Risk Disclaimer: In light of persistent trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, risk levels remain elevated. Traders should be prepared for multiple market scenarios.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. This market’s risk level remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which could result in heightened price fluctuations.

S1: 68.75R1: 71.70
S2: 67.55R2: 73.45
S3: 65.85R3: 74.60

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