Jobless data suggests recession has not come yet

Initial jobless claims have been trending higher since early April in one of the clearest signs that the US labour market conditions have begun to deteriorate. While jobless claims have a successful track record foreshadowing recession, continuing claims are a better check on whether the economy is already slowing down.

The weekly report, on Thursday, has showed Initial Jobless Claims rose to 260K in the week ended July 30 while Continuing Claims rose to 1.41 million, the highest level since March. The recent trend in jobless continuing claims backs the opinion that the US economy is not currently in recession.

However, economists warn that the recent uptick resembles the months that preceded prior recessions, suggesting that the start of a recession may be looming.