LEI Index Spots U.S. Economy Acceleration

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August.

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Gains were widespread among the leading indicators, with only the average workweek and consumers’ outlook making negative contributions.

“However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022. Despite these headwinds, The Conference Board forecasts growth to remain strong in the fourth quarter at around 5.0 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still historically robust rate of 2.6 percent in Q1 2022.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.5 percent in October to 106.3 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in September and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in October to 107.4 (2016 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in September and a 0.3 percent decline in August.