Fed’s Beige Book: Economic Activity Has Expanded Since January

On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book for March 2022 was released citing the word “modest” 52 times, “moderate” mentioned 47 times and “Uncertainty” 11 times. Some traders guess a lot of what happens today and tomorrow will depend on the Fed’s Beige book

Key Quotes
Economic activity has expanded at a modest to moderate pace since mid-January

Many districts reported that the surgeon Covid 19 cases temporarily disrupted business activity.

Consumer spending was generally weaker than in the prior report.

Widespread strong demand for workers remained hampered by equally widespread reports of worker scarcity.

A few districts reported an acceleration in prices.

All districts noted that supply chain issues and low inventories continue to restrain growth

There was some weakening of financial conditions. Rising input costs were cited as primary contributing factor across a broad swatch of industries, with elevated transport costs particularly significant.

Labour cost increases and ongoing materials shortages also contributed to higher input prices.

Many firms had difficulty maintaining their staffing levels due to high turnover.

Firms reporting an increased ability to pass on prices to consumers, in most cases, demand has remained strong despite price increases. Districts reported overall economic outlook over the next six months stable and generally optimistic, although reports highlighted an elevated degree of uncertainty

Firms reported they expect that additional price increases over the next several months.

Staffing challenges were exasperated by Covid 19 disruptions in January.

Increase compensation and introducing workplace flexibility was needed to attract workers.

Contacts reported they expect the tight labour market and consequent strong wage growth to continue.

A few districts reported signs of wage growth moderating.

Price charged to customers increased at a robust pace across the nation ( inflation )

The beige book is consistent with a tight labour market with high inflation. Of interest is that a “few” districts reported signs of wage growth moderating.

Read Full Text:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20220302.pdf