Chicago PMI Surges in January

Activity at factories in the U.S. Midwestern region defied expectations by gaining momentum in January. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) delivered a fresh reading of 65.2, indicating manufacturing expansion accelerated in the first month of 2022, rising from December’s upwardly revised 64.3 and coming in well above the 61.7 consensus, which would have indicated a modest slowdown.

A PMI number above 50 signifies expanded activity over the previous month. The index has been on a downward trend since May, when scarcity of supply amid booming demand began tossing buckets of cold water on factory expansion.

Supply scarcity has led to order backups and higher input costs, and a labour drought has been yet another headwind.

The big picture for manufacturing is still favourable, but the sector is nonetheless susceptible to disruptions from the Omicron wave, both at home and overseas, so a couple months of slower growth in activity and employment in the sector seem a decent bet.

Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) more broad, national PMI data expected on Tuesday, which analysts expect will come in at 57.5, a 1.1 point drop from the December reading. The two indexes largely track each other, although ISM’s country-wide data is understandably less volatile:

Wall Street appears to be determined to make up some ground lost so far this year as January draws to a close. All three major U.S. stock indexes are in the green territory, with Tesla, Apple and Amazon providing the biggest boost and putting the Nasdaq out front.