CAD Fightback: Is the Loonie Set to Regain Lost Ground? 23/4/2026

The USD/CAD pair is gradually declining within a bearish context, reaching its lowest level during early trading today around 1.3643.

Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe:

The simple moving averages on shorter timeframes have returned to exert downward pressure on price action, establishing a dynamic resistance level. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached oversold territory, which may enhance the possibility of a temporary upward correction that does not contradict the broader daily downtrend.

Likely Scenario:

If daily trading remains above 1.3660, we may see a retest of 1.3690 and then 1.3720, respectively. Conversely, if trading remains below 1.3660, the pair is expected to resume its official downward trajectory, targeting 1.3590 as an initial objective.

Note: Today, April 23, 2026, the pair faces potential volatility from high-impact data. In the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims (forecasted at 212K) and Flash PMI data are in focus. Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring Canada’s economic health ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales release, all while navigating the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the expiration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Caution: The risk level is high amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, and all scenarios remain possible.

Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.

S1: 1.3650	R1: 1.3690
S2: 1.3615	R2: 1.3740
S3: 1.3590	R3: 1.3770