Behind the Curtains: Likely Bidenexit Matters for US Economy

About 29 Democrats in the House are calling for US President Joe Biden to step down. However, some top Democrats privately believe that the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade Biden to quit the presidential race as soon as this weekend. The 81-year-old president remains publicly dug in, but privately he’s resigned to mounting pressure, bad polls, and untenable scrutiny making it impossible to continue his campaign.

Democrats fully expect polls after the Republican National Convention to show a possible blowout that could bring down Democrats in Congress, too. A panic pressure campaign is pounding Biden, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer telling Biden in Rehoboth Beach, Del., that it would be best if he dropped out, and Dems on Capitol Hill wanting him out, worried they’ll lose winnable seats if not. Former President Obama has spoken loudly with his silence, and his former aides are doing what Obama’s did.

Democratic insiders have been trying to avoid Biden’s re-election bid, as he is known for his historic accomplishments and love for his family. However, Biden has not taken the hints as loudly as they got, leading to accusations that he is forcing people who like him and respect him to resort to trying to shame him. The reality check is that Biden cannot be forced out, as he has the delegates and no one can physically pry them away. If Biden wanted to stay in, he would be impenetrable, thanks to liberal leaders and the Congressional Black Caucus. However, his closest friends believe he has fought the good fight and will succumb to reality.

The Biden-Harris campaign tells us that if the facts matter, here is one: President Biden is the Democratic nominee and he is going to win this November. At a counterprogramming event outside the GOP convention in Milwaukee, deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters that Biden “is not wavering on anything. The president has made his decision.”


Biden is doing two new and telling things: listening more and asking about Vice President Harris’ prospects against Trump. That’s why there are leaks about Biden being open-minded. The most likely scenario is Biden bowing out and endorsed Harris, but also flicking to letting the delegates sort it out if the party feels otherwise. If the Obamas and Clintons joined Biden, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), and the Congressional Black Caucus in backing her, it’s not clear the coronation would be so fast and clear.

Implications on US Economy

Economic growth in the United States is not evenly distributed across the country, with a comparison of county unemployment between 2019 (a strong Trump year) and 2023 (a strong Biden year). More counties overall did better under Biden, but counties in swing states, especially Michigan and Nevada, did better under Trump. Both Trump and Biden favor place-based industrial policies, such as Republican tariffs and Democratic subsidies for semiconductors and green energy, which benefit some counties and states more than others.

Both Trump and Biden presided over tight labor markets, giving all workers more bargaining power, which helped narrow long-standing gender and racial gaps in the workforce. Female and Black workers saw strong employment gains under Trump, while Biden has tried to create employment opportunities for groups normally left behind. In April of last year, the Black unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 4.8%, and for the first time ever, the share of Black Americans who are employed exceeded the share of White Americans who are employed. Women have bounced back from the pandemic faster than men, partly because new work-from-home arrangements permit more flexible schedules.

Job growth was widespread under both Trump and Biden, with many more manufacturing jobs created under Biden (762,000 more), manufacturing jobs now at their highest level since the Great Recession. White-collar, health-care, and government jobs have also surged in recent years. Home prices have been rising rapidly in recent years, with the median home sale price rising from about $320,000 to about $420,000 by the end of Trump’s term. However, younger Americans fear that they might never be able to afford to buy a home due to a supply shortage in the United States.

American entrepreneurship has surged to its highest levels in decades since the pandemic hit in 2020, and while Biden has been generous with government aid during the pandemic, the trend appears to be mostly part of a broader reassessment of work and life that has happened since the pandemic. In 2022, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1%, with Biden pushing to expand coverage by making government subsidies more generous for working-class Americans who buy insurance through the Obamacare marketplaces.

Trump and Biden alike worsened the federal debt, with the pandemic requiring a lot of emergency spending under both administrations. The pressure campaign against Biden came to a halt briefly after an assassination attempt against Trump last weekend, but it began picking up again on Wednesday when Rep. Adam Schiff urged the president to step aside. Vice President Kamala Harris told donors on a call Friday afternoon that the ticket will remain intact, while the president has been sidelined in Rehoboth Beach while he recovers from COVID.